A crypto analyst says Bitcoin is still in a clear bear trend and could be heading for another major crash to new lows. Using wave analysis, the expert mapped out BTC’s price movements during this bearish phase, explaining how he sees the market developing and where the next drop might lead. Unlike other analysts, he believes BTC hasn’t hit its cycle bottom yet and may first see a final spike before falling below $40,000.
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### Bitcoin Price Could Rebound To $80,000 Before A Final Crash
Market analyst Crypto Bullet shared a bearish BTC forecast on X, suggesting the leading cryptocurrency could still face more declines before the current bear market ends. In his analysis, he described BTC’s market structure as a “Double ZigZag (WXY)” formation, using it to track the cryptocurrency’s price action from its October 2025 peak and predict where the next major drop might happen.
One reason Crypto Bullet views BTC’s bear market through this WXY structure is how the cryptocurrency has traded in recent months. He noted that Bitcoin has spent much more time consolidating between $62,000 and $78,000 than it did in the $84,000 to $97,000 range, where it traded from November 2025 to January 2026. To him, this prolonged sideways movement reflects a broader bearish structure still playing out.
Based on that setup, Crypto Bullet believes BTC’s recent rebound above $78,000 doesn’t mean the bear market is over. Instead, it could be part of a larger corrective move. He expects the cryptocurrency to make one final push higher toward $85,000, with this level as the next major resistance above his ABC target of $82,500, as shown on his chart.
Crypto Bullet ties this outlook to his WXY wave structure. According to him, Bitcoin completed wave W after peaking above $126,000 in October 2025 and plunging to $60,000 in February 2026. He noted that wave X also began after BTC reached $60,000 and projected it could end once the cryptocurrency rallies above $80,000.
If that plays out, Crypto Bullet expects wave Y as the final low, where he believes BTC could eventually find a bottom. In terms of timing, the analyst thinks BTC still has five months left before its bear market ends, which closely matches timelines from past bear cycles.
### Analyst Marks BTC Bottom Target At $40,000
Crypto Bullet’s bearish outlook for Bitcoin focuses on wave Y, which he believes could bring the most severe downturn of this cycle. According to him, once Bitcoin completes its rebound above $80,000 in wave X, the market could reverse sharply, triggering a rapid price crash toward a final bottom.
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He set BTC’s potential bottom target at $40,000, expecting the move to happen between September and October 2026. From the $80,000 level, this would be a massive 50% decline, potentially wiping out bullish traders who saw the surge to $80,000 as the start of a new uptrend. Supporting this outlook, crypto analyst Tony Severino said he believes this could be the most likely scenario for BTC.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about the drop in Bitcoins price to 40000 and what it means for the bottom
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 Does the drop to 40000 mean the bottom is here for sure
No it doesnt While 40000 is a key psychological level there is no guarantee it is the absolute bottom Prices can go lower especially in volatile markets like crypto
2 Why is 40000 such a big deal for Bitcoin
40000 is a major round number that investors watch closely It often acts as a support level where buyers step in or a resistance level where sellers take over Breaking below it can signal more fear in the market
3 If Bitcoin hits 40000 should I buy right now
Not necessarily A drop to 40000 might be a good entry point but its risky to try and catch a falling knife Its smarter to wait for signs of stabilization before buying
4 What does finding the bottom mean in simple terms
It means the lowest price before the market starts to recover If you buy at the bottom you get the best possible price before prices go back up
Intermediate Advanced Questions
5 Is 40000 a support or a resistance level for Bitcoin
Historically 40000 has acted as both In early 2024 it was a resistance level When it broke below it became a potential support level If it holds it could be a bottom if it breaks again the next support is around 3000032000
6 Does a drop to 40000 trigger any major liquidations
Yes A drop to 40000 often triggers a cascade of long position liquidations on exchanges This can create a flash crash that briefly pushes the price even lower before bouncing back
7 How does the 40000 level compare to previous bull market bottoms
In 2021 30000 was a major accumulation zone Today 40000 is viewed similarly because the overall market cap and adoption are higher A bottom at