21Shares has presented a three-scenario price forecast for XRP in 2026, suggesting the token is transitioning from a trade defined by legal battles to one increasingly valued on ETF-driven demand and measurable on-chain adoption.
In a January 23 research note, 21Shares analyst Matt Mena describes 2026 as a “defining turning point” where XRP’s value becomes “anchored in institutional fundamentals.” This shift follows the August 2025 settlement that resolved the SEC lawsuit, which the firm says had been a structural limit on XRP’s price “regardless of its underlying utility.” With that overhang removed, the market repriced XRP to a new all-time high of $3.66 before consolidating, with the former resistance level of $2.00 now acting as support.
XRP Price Predictions for 2026
21Shares characterizes the post-settlement environment as more challenging for XRP: there is less room for speculative narratives and more accountability. With the legal uncertainty cleared, XRP “can no longer rely on courtroom hype or regulatory ambiguity to drive its valuation or excuse underperformance.” This introduces a “sell the news” risk if real-world usage fails to grow and the market begins to price the asset based on actual adoption rather than legal relief.
The firm believes regulatory clarity expands XRP’s potential buyer base and product opportunities in the U.S., including regulated funds, ETP issuers, banks, and payment companies. According to 21Shares, these channels were previously held back by compliance concerns, and their renewed participation will drive a new phase of price discovery.
The second key factor is investment flows. 21Shares states that U.S. spot XRP ETFs have “fundamentally rewritten” XRP’s demand profile, gathering over $1.3 billion in assets under management in their first month and recording 55 consecutive days of net inflows. The report emphasizes a supply-and-demand dynamic, noting that institutional ETF demand is meeting unusually resilient retail holding behavior.
“Exchange reserves are at a seven-year low of 1.7 billion XRP. Institutional ETF demand is colliding with a community that refuses to sell.” This clash, the firm argues, is the “primary engine” for a potentially sharp price revaluation, though it also warns the effect could reverse if ETF inflows slow down.
To illustrate this dynamic, 21Shares points to the first year of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs as a blueprint, which saw nearly $38 billion in net inflows and a price surge from around $40,000 to $100,000 within 12 months. The key difference, in their view, is XRP’s smaller market cap at the start of its ETF era compared to Bitcoin’s, implying that each dollar of net buying could have a larger proportional impact on XRP’s price—if the early inflow trends continue through 2026.
The third pillar is utility, with 21Shares describing the XRP Ledger (XRPL) as “financial plumbing” for tokenization and stablecoin settlement. The note highlights the growth of RLUSD, which has reached over 37,000 holders and seen its market cap soar from $72 million to $1.38 billion in under a year—an increase of over 1,800%. It also notes that XRPL’s DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) has grown nearly 100-fold in two years to over $100 million. The Multi-Purpose Tokens standard is cited as a tool for institutions to issue real-world assets (RWAs) with built-in metadata and compliance rules.
However, 21Shares also cautions about execution risk: progress is “evolutionary, not explosive,” and XRPL lags behind competitors in developer and user engagement. It faces competition for RWA activity from networks like Canton, Solana, and others.
21Shares’ modeled price ranges for 2026 set a base case at $2.45 (50% probability), a bull case at $2.69 (30%), and a bear case at $1.60 (an implied 16% decline). The key variables are sustained ETF inflows, significant tokenization volume, and RLUSD maintaining its institutional momentum.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.8792.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the 21Shares Forecasts Three Potential XRP Price Scenarios for 2026 report designed to be clear and helpful for all levels of interest
General Beginner Questions
1 What is this 21Shares report about
Its a research report from the crypto asset manager 21Shares that analyzes possible future prices for XRP by the year 2026 outlining three different scenarios based on various factors
2 Who is 21Shares and why should I care about their forecast
21Shares is a major regulated issuer of cryptocurrency exchangetraded products Their analysis is based on research and data not just opinion making it a noteworthy perspective for investors
3 What are the three price scenarios for XRP in 2026
The report outlines a Bear Case a Base Case and a Bull Case The report did not publish specific price targets publicly as their full analysis is for clients
4 So how high could XRP actually go by 2026
No one knows for sure The 21Shares report provides a framework of possibilities but the actual price will depend on market adoption regulation and overall crypto market trends Its a forecast not a guarantee
5 Im new to crypto What is XRP used for
XRP is primarily designed for fast lowcost international money transfers and currency exchanges between financial institutions acting as a bridge currency
Advanced Analytical Questions
6 What factors did 21Shares likely consider in their scenarios
They typically analyze the outcome of Ripples ongoing SEC lawsuit adoption by banks and payment providers overall crypto market cycles competition from other payment coins and macroeconomic conditions
7 Whats the difference between the Base Case and Bull Case scenarios
The Base Case assumes moderate adoption and a resolution to regulatory challenges The Bull Case assumes widespread institutional adoption a very favorable regulatory landscape and a major crypto bull market potentially pushing the price significantly higher
8 How does the ongoing SEC lawsuit against Ripple affect these forecasts
Its the single biggest factor A clear positive resolution could trigger the