Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading above the recently broken $74,000 resistance level, aiming to return to price highs not seen since late last year. However, this week is expected to be highly turbulent, with market expert Virtual Bacon predicting it could be “the most volatile week in Bitcoin all year.”
Bearish Structure Remains
In a social media post, Virtual Bacon noted that while Bitcoin’s current uptrend is positive, significant hurdles remain. The key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is at $93,000, and the 50-week SMA is near $98,000. The last major lower high sits around $94,000, creating a concentrated resistance zone between $93,000 and $98,000.
In simple terms, there is a 15% downside risk to support near $60,000, compared to a 30% upside potential to the resistance zone. Virtual Bacon emphasized that the likelihood of a price rejection back into its previous range is higher than a full breakout into a new bull market.
“This isn’t me being bearish,” he stated, clarifying that his analysis is based on the data. “We remain in a bear market until BTC decisively breaks above the $94,000 to $98,000 resistance.”
Volatility Catalysts This Week
Virtual Bacon points to several events that could drive market swings this week. The first is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 18-19.
While there is a 99.1% probability of no interest rate cut, the expert believes any comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell—especially hawkish tones related to oil-driven inflation—could trigger a sharp market sell-off.
Additionally, the expiration of quarterly Bitcoin options on the same day increases the potential for dramatic price moves. Current options data shows heavy open interest clustered around $74,000 to $75,000, suggesting prices may remain pinned near this level until Friday’s expiry.
Virtual Bacon noted that if Bitcoin’s price moves above $75,000, it could surge toward $80,000. Conversely, a drop below $70,000 could accelerate a downward trend. Ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices could further destabilize the market. He argued that if oil approaches $120 per barrel, combined with the FOMC and “quadruple witching” events, significant market instability could follow.
Two Potential Scenarios
The expert outlined two main scenarios for Bitcoin by the end of the week.
The first is a potential breakout, where Bitcoin holds above $75,000 through Friday’s expected volatility. This could pave the way for a move toward $80,000 and renew bullish sentiment, setting up a potential attempt to challenge the key $94,000-$98,000 resistance zone in the second quarter.
The second scenario involves a rejection at the $75,000 resistance, leading to a post-expiry drop back into the $63,000 to $70,000 range.
Virtual Bacon concluded that if such a decline occurs, it could coincide with the S&P 500 breaking below its 200-day SMA and rising oil prices, potentially pushing Bitcoin back into prolonged bear market conditions. In this scenario, prices could fall as low as $58,000 or even $43,000.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the headline This Week Could Be Bitcoins Most Volatile of 2026 Top Expert Warns designed to cover questions from beginners to more advanced investors
Beginner General Questions
1 What does volatile mean in this context
Volatile means the price of Bitcoin is expected to swing up and down dramatically and unpredictably in a short period Instead of moving a few percent it could surge or plunge by a much larger amount in a single day
2 Why is this specific week in 2026 predicted to be so volatile
While the exact 2026 trigger is hypothetical experts typically point to major scheduled events For 2026 the most likely catalyst is the quadrennial Bitcoin halving which is expected in April 2024 and then roughly every four years after This event cuts the new supply of Bitcoin in half historically leading to periods of extreme price speculation and uncertainty both before and after
3 Should I be worried or excited about this volatility
It depends on your goals and risk tolerance For traders it presents potential opportunities for large gains For longterm holders it may be a stressful period they plan to ignore For newcomers its a warning to be extremely cautious and avoid investing money you cant afford to lose
4 Whats a halving and why does it cause volatility
The halving is a preprogrammed event in Bitcoins code that cuts the reward miners get for securing the network in half This slows the rate of new Bitcoin creation Volatility comes from the unknown Will the reduced supply surge demand and drive the price up Or will miner selloff and market speculation cause a sharp drop The market fiercely debates the outcome
5 As a beginner what should I do during a volatile week
Do not panic sell if the price drops sharply
Do not FOMO buy if the price spikes rapidly
Consider it a learning period to observe how the market behaves
Stick to any preset plan and avoid making emotional large trades
Advanced Strategic Questions