XRP has failed to gain upward momentum in recent days. After being rejected above $2.15 mid-week, its price has retreated to hover just above the $2 mark. A new long-term technical analysis from crypto analyst ChartNerd compares XRP’s current price action to its 2016 market cycle, suggesting history may be repeating itself in a way that could precede a major rally.
Repeating the 2016 Pattern
According to ChartNerd, XRP’s current structure mirrors a pattern from late 2016, when the price rejected an accumulation zone and entered an ABC corrective move. That correction led to a sharp 69% decline, which bottomed in early 2017 around $0.00240. Rather than ending the bullish cycle, this drop marked the conclusion of the correction.
The analysis highlights a similar rejection pattern forming now, following XRP’s all-time high in July. Since then, monthly candles have consistently closed lower, and XRP has already corrected about 44% from its peak. If the full 69% ABC correction plays out as it did in 2016, it could push XRP below $1, potentially toward $0.80, with this move expected to unfold into early 2026.
A Potential Setup for a Major Rally
Currently trading at $2.04, a drop below $1 would represent a 51% decline from current levels. Such a deep pullback may seem unlikely, especially with inflows into spot XRP ETFs, and could test the conviction of bullish traders. However, the analysis frames this as a necessary structural reset.
In 2017, the consolidation after the crash set the stage for one of XRP’s most explosive rallies, resulting in gains exceeding 110,000%. If a similar sequence occurs, the true bullish opportunity may emerge later in 2026. From that reset zone, the chart projects a long-term advance toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, with a potential target around $27. This would represent a gain of roughly 2,300% following the corrective phase.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about XRP framed around the historical pattern of a significant drop preceding a massive surge written in a clear and natural tone
Beginner Definition Questions
1 What is XRP
XRP is a digital asset and the native cryptocurrency of the XRP Ledger a fast energyefficient blockchain designed for fast and lowcost crossborder payments
2 What does following a pattern similar to 2016 mean
It refers to the idea that XRPs price action might repeat a historical cycle In 2016 XRPs price fell sharply over several months which was followed by a multiyear period of explosive growth culminating in a gain of roughly 110000 by early 2018
3 Is it guaranteed that XRP will drop 69 again and then surge
No absolutely not Past performance is never a guarantee of future results The 20162018 cycle happened under very different market conditions regulations and adoption levels Its a historical reference not a prediction
Market Price Action Questions
4 Why would XRP drop significantly before a potential surge
Sharp drops can happen for many reasons broader crypto market downturns profittaking by large holders negative news or simply a loss of shortterm investor confidence A deep drop can shake out weak hands before a new bullish trend begins
5 What could trigger another massive surge for XRP
A surge would likely require a combination of factors widespread adoption of the XRP Ledger by banks and financial institutions clear global regulatory clarity for crypto a new overall bull market in crypto and major developments from Ripple
6 How long did the 2016 drop and the subsequent surge take
The 69 decline in 2016 took about 6 months The massive 110000 surge that followed played out over roughly the next 1824 months showing these cycles take considerable time
Risks Practical Considerations
7 What are the biggest risks of trying to follow this pattern
The main risk is mistaking a historical analogy for a sure thing You could buy during a drop but the price could keep falling or stagnate