Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, believes Solana could reach a trillion-dollar valuation within five years. Based on its circulating supply, this would roughly translate to a SOL price around $1,600. Hougan shared this view on the January 29 episode of When Shift Happens, presenting it as a “two ways to win” scenario: growth in the overall market for stablecoins and tokenized assets, plus Solana capturing a larger share of that market compared to rival networks.
Hougan argues that the infrastructure for stablecoins and tokenization is expanding so rapidly that major, liquid layer-1 blockchains should be valued not as niche crypto projects, but as foundational rails for traditional finance. He points to the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s expectation that the stablecoin market will grow twelvefold in four years, and to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s vision of a future where all assets—stocks, bonds, real estate, and funds—are tokenized.
While Ethereum remains the leader in stablecoins and tokenization, Hougan sees Solana as a legitimate competitor with distinct technological advantages. He emphasizes that Solana is “extraordinarily easy to use” and has a community with a “ship first” mentality. In his view, this ease of use is an underrated strength that investors often overlook in favor of technical metrics like throughput. For everyday users trading or onboarding, Hougan believes simplicity is the key feature, and Solana delivers on that front.
He also addressed how token supply dynamics can affect price. Solana’s market capitalization could rise significantly even if the token price doesn’t set new records, and staking yields—which he estimates at roughly 7% annually—can help offset dilution from new token issuance.
Regarding regulation, Hougan noted that Solana’s role in stablecoins and tokenization was limited under the previous U.S. regulatory climate, as institutions were hesitant to build on networks they perceived as outside the regulatory perimeter. With that uncertainty fading, institutional interest is broadening.
Hougan highlighted why a potential spot Solana ETF could be particularly impactful. Even modest inflows into an ETF would be chasing a relatively limited supply of SOL, creating what he calls “one of the best setups for an asset I’ve ever seen.” He points to the combination of constrained supply, growing institutional demand, and the expansion of stablecoins and tokenization as a powerful mix.
Despite his optimism, Hougan avoided giving a precise price target, focusing instead on market cap potential. He stated that a trillion-dollar valuation in five years is “relatively easy to imagine,” but acknowledged it depends on factors like the growth rate of stablecoins and tokenization, regulatory developments such as the Clarity Act, and broader crypto market cycles.
Based on simple market cap calculations, a $1 trillion valuation for Solana would result in a four-figure token price, with the exact number depending on the circulating supply at the time.To calculate the price per SOL for a $1 trillion market cap, divide that amount by the circulating supply. With roughly 566 million SOL in circulation, this comes to about $1,766 per token ($1,000,000,000,000 ÷ 566,000,000). If you consider a fully diluted supply closer to 619 million SOL, the same market cap results in roughly $1,615 per SOL ($1,000,000,000,000 ÷ 619,000,000). In short, framing Solana as a “trillion-dollar asset” points to a price in the mid-$1,000s per token based on current supply figures, with the exact value shifting as supply changes.
Hougan’s outlook on Solana is part of a broader macroeconomic theme he emphasized: that currency devaluation is driving investors toward scarce, non-sovereign stores of value. For Bitcoin, he sees a “two ways to win” scenario—both from the growth of the store-of-value market and from Bitcoin capturing market share from gold. He suggests that if adoption trends from the past 10–15 years continue, this could push BTC’s price into the multi-millions over decades.
For Solana, the path isn’t about becoming “digital gold,” but rather about establishing itself as a leading platform for stablecoin transactions and tokenized securities. If these systems scale and Solana continues to gain traction as a fast, institution-friendly network, then Hougan’s trillion-dollar vision suggests the current market is undervaluing its potential.
At the time of writing, SOL is trading at $115.40.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitwise CIOs 1600 Solana Prediction
Q1 What is this prediction about
A1 The Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management a major crypto investment firm has publicly stated a belief that Solanas price could potentially exceed 1600 per token within the next five years
Q2 Who is Bitwise and why should I care about their prediction
A2 Bitwise is a significant and regulated asset manager specializing in crypto Their predictions carry weight because they are based on professional research and market analysis not just personal opinion
Q3 What is Solana
A3 Solana is a blockchain network designed for fast lowcost transactions Its native cryptocurrency is called SOL which is used to pay for transaction fees and participate in the networks operations
Q4 Is this a guarantee that Solana will hit 1600
A4 No it is not a guarantee It is a forwardlooking prediction or a price target based on specific assumptions about future adoption technology development and market conditions All crypto investments are highly volatile and speculative
Q5 What reasons did the Bitwise CIO give for this prediction
A5 While the exact rationale may vary in detail such predictions typically cite Solanas high speed and low costs its growing ecosystem of applications and the potential for it to capture a significant share of blockchain activity in the coming years
Q6 What would Solanas market value be if it hit 1600
A6 To find the market capitalization you would multiply the price by the total supply of SOL tokens This would place its market cap in the hundreds of billions of dollars implying massive growth from current levels
Q7 As a beginner does this mean I should buy Solana now
A7 Not necessarily You should never invest based solely on one prediction Always do your own research understand the risks of cryptocurrency and only invest money you can afford to lose Consider your own financial goals and risk tolerance
Q8 What are the biggest risks that could prevent Solana from reaching this price
A8 Key risks include intense competition from other blockchains potential technical issues or network outages which