Bitcoin is approaching another daily “death cross,” where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day. However, analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) believes this term is more misleading than helpful. In a November 12 video titled “BTC Daily Death Cross — How It Works And What To Expect,” he explains that in this market cycle, each daily death cross has occurred near the end of multi-month corrective phases, effectively marking their lows.
He cautions against alarmist predictions, stating, “Don’t fall for posts claiming the death cross means an 80% drop. That hasn’t been the case. Remember, moving averages are lagging indicators—the price move that caused the cross has already happened.”
Kevin emphasizes that this cycle differs from 2017 or 2020–2021, when rapid price increases prevented the 50-day average from dropping below the 200-day. Instead, 2023–2025 has seen extended corrective periods lasting 114 to 174 days, with prices moving sideways or down before rising again. These prolonged corrections pushed the 50-day average low enough to form a death cross, each time near the end of the downturn.
He reviews the three previous death crosses:
– In 2023, after Bitcoin broke out of bear-market lows and struggled post-$30k, the death cross signaled the correction’s end. Following about a month of consolidation, Bitcoin surged from around $25k to $73k, with altcoins seeing massive gains.
– In 2024, after a mid-cycle peak in March and a slow period leading up to the U.S. election, a sharp drop preceded the death cross. After two months of choppy trading, Bitcoin rallied to about $110k, fueled by election optimism and a more accommodating Federal Reserve.
– In early 2025, the death cross clearly marked the bottom of a correction driven by tariff concerns and market excess, with prices recovering swiftly afterward. Kevin describes 2025 as a year of recovery rather than growth, which has led to poor market sentiment.
The key point is the lag in moving averages; they reflect past price movements. Kevin notes that after a death cross, prices often bounce back toward these averages. The critical factor is whether Bitcoin can not only touch but solidly reclaim its moving averages and close above $106.8k weekly. Success could lead to new all-time highs, while failure might indicate a weak cycle without a typical altcoin boom.
Regarding current conditions, Kevin observes divided opinions on the four-year cycle’s timing and signs of long-term holders selling. Despite this, he’s surprised Bitcoin has maintained its price around $…Despite facing significant selling pressure, Bitcoin has held at $105,000. In the past, when Bitcoin peaked and large holders sold off, it often saw 50% corrections. The broader economic context also plays a role: restrictive monetary policies have drained liquidity from the system, with high interest rates and AI-driven stocks attracting risk capital. While the NASDAQ and S&P have repeatedly hit new highs over recent years, the Russell index only reached a new high a few weeks ago, showing that crypto’s underperformance isn’t an isolated issue.
According to Kevin, the market is approaching a critical test. A daily “death cross” is expected within a day or two, likely over the weekend, and traders should watch for a reaction near key moving averages. The crucial step will be whether Bitcoin can break through resistance levels—specifically the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), 100-day EMA, and 50-day SMA—and turn the $106,800 weekly close back into support. If successful, Bitcoin could aim for new highs; if not, the outlook may worsen.
He notes that upcoming economic data and central bank comments could disrupt this scenario but points out that similar patterns have occurred three times this cycle, each time marking a corrective low rather than a trend breakdown. In fact, the feared “death cross” has signaled every bottom so far and is about to appear again. The key will be how Bitcoin responds: whether it gets rejected at the averages or manages to reclaim and hold above $106,800 on a weekly basis.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $103,540.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of helpful and clear FAQs about the Bitcoin Death Cross designed to demystify the term for all levels of investors
Beginner Definition Questions
Q1 What is a Death Cross in simple terms
A Its a chart pattern that happens when a cryptocurrencys average price over the last 50 days drops below its average price over the last 200 days Its seen by some traders as a potential signal for a longerterm downtrend
Q2 Why is it called a Death Cross Isnt that a scary name
A The name is meant to sound dramatic which is why it can be misleading It comes from oldschool stock market technical analysis and is intended to signal a major shift in momentum but its not a guaranteed prediction of a price crash
Q3 Is a Death Cross a sure sign that Bitcoins price will crash
A No it is not a sure sign It is just one indicator among many Historically a Death Cross has sometimes been followed by lower prices but it has also frequently been a false signal occurring right before a significant price rebound
Q4 Whats the opposite of a Death Cross
A The opposite is called a Golden Cross This happens when the 50day average price moves above the 200day average which is generally interpreted as a bullish signal for a potential longterm uptrend
Advanced Technical Questions
Q5 How reliable is the Death Cross as a trading signal for Bitcoin
A Its reliability is highly debated Because Bitcoin is a volatile asset the Death Cross can be a lagging indicator meaning it confirms a trend that has already happened rather than predicting the future It often generates false signals in choppy or sideways markets
Q6 I see a Death Cross on the chart What other factors should I look at
A Dont rely on it alone Always consider
Trading Volume Is the selling volume high or low
Overall Market Sentiment What is the general mood in the crypto market
OnChain Data Are large investors accumulating or selling
Macroeconomic Factors What are interest rates and inflation doing