An analyst has noted that Bitcoin may be approaching a “death cross” on its 3-day chart, involving the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). A death cross, typically seen as a bearish signal, occurs when the shorter-term SMA crosses below the longer-term one.
Looking at past cycles, similar crossovers in 2014, 2018, and 2022 each preceded significant price declines—ranging from about 46% to 52%—and marked the final downward moves of those bear markets.
Currently, Bitcoin’s recent price drop has brought the 50-day SMA closer to the 200-day SMA. Based on their current trajectories, the analyst estimates a death cross could occur around February 27. If historical patterns hold, this might signal one last leg down for Bitcoin in the current bear market, though it remains to be seen whether the cycle will repeat or diverge.
In other news, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has recently moved into negative territory. Historically, such periods of net loss realization have lasted over six months before liquidity returned to the market.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $63,300, giving back some of its recent gains.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin and the Death Cross Pattern
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What is a Death Cross in simple terms
A Death Cross is a chart pattern that happens when a shortterm moving average crosses below a longterm moving average Its seen by some traders as a potential signal for a shift from a bullish trend to a bearish trend
2 Why is everyone talking about a Death Cross for Bitcoin right now
Bitcoins price chart is showing or approaching this pattern again Because it appeared before major price declines in past bear markets people are discussing whether it could signal another significant downturn
3 Is a Death Cross a guaranteed prediction that Bitcoin will crash
No it is not a guarantee It is a lagging indicator meaning it confirms a trend that has already happened It can be a warning sign but it has also given false signals It should never be used alone to make investment decisions
4 What should a new investor do if they hear about a Death Cross
First dont panic Use it as a prompt to learn more about market analysis and risk management Review your investment strategy ensure youre not investing money you cant afford to lose and consider that volatile periods are normal for Bitcoin
Advanced Practical Questions
5 How reliable has the Death Cross been for Bitcoin historically
Historically it has coincided with the continuation of severe bear markets making it a notable marker However its timing is often latethe major price drop usually occurs before the cross completes Its more of a confirmation tool than a timing tool for entry or exit
6 Whats the opposite of a Death Cross
The opposite is a Golden Cross where the shortterm moving average crosses above the longterm average This is traditionally viewed as a bullish signal for a potential longterm uptrend
7 What are the main limitations or criticisms of relying on this pattern
Lagging Indicator It confirms past price action not future moves
False Signals In ranging or volatile markets it can trigger and then quickly reverse