Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, says bitcoin could still drop toward—and possibly below—$10,000. He believes cryptocurrencies remain caught in a broader market downturn driven by deflationary pressure, overextended risk assets, and what he calls excess across the digital-asset space.
In an interview with EllioTrades, McGlone repeated a prediction he first made when bitcoin was above $100,000: that the market could once again “lop off a zero.” This time, he framed the outlook less as a pure crypto-cycle forecast and more as a macro view on what happens when speculative assets start to decline together.
The Case for $10,000 Bitcoin
McGlone’s main argument is that bitcoin no longer trades as an isolated alternative asset. Instead, he says, it has been pulled into the same risk environment as stocks, commodities, and broader liquidity conditions.
“Bitcoin was one in 2009 and now there’s 37 million cryptocurrencies,” he said. “Bitcoin was one. So limited supply. But this space led the way up in risk assets… Now they’re leading the way lower.”
He links that view to what he sees as a post-inflation deflationary phase, where bond markets—not crypto—are likely to be the next relative winners. McGlone noted that sharp moves in energy, metals, and crypto volatility haven’t yet fully spilled into equities, but he expects that to change. His base case is that stock-market volatility rises significantly from still-low levels, triggering a deeper correction in both equities and digital assets. That, in turn, supports his bitcoin target.
McGlone clarified that he isn’t pinpointing $10,000 as an exact cycle low, but rather as the most important long-term trading zone in bitcoin’s history from 2019–2020.
“If you look at the highest most widely traded price in Bitcoin since 2020, maybe even going out to 2019, it’s 10,000 or lower and has a history of fluctuating around 10,000,” he said. “So my premise is we’re going back to that level.”
He was especially blunt about the rest of the crypto sector. McGlone argued that stablecoins are the only clear structural winners in crypto because they “track something physical,” namely the dollar and Treasury-based collateral. Everything else, he suggested, depends largely on speculative belief.
He pointed to the massive growth of Tether and the broader crypto-dollar supply as evidence that the base layer of the ecosystem is increasing demand for dollars, not for volatile tokens.
McGlone also said the speculative excess of 2024 and 2025—amplified by memecoins, ETFs, and post-election enthusiasm around Donald Trump—may have marked a lasting top for the broader asset class.
“The bottom line is these risk assets have to prove me wrong,” he said. “Otherwise, I see us navigating and riding a bear market in equities, a bull market in volatility that’s barely getting started.”
EllioTrades pushed back on both the scale of the bitcoin prediction and the idea that crypto is effectively “dead.” He argued that Bitcoin could still reestablish itself as a hedge against currency debasement, and that stablecoin-based commerce, privacy use cases, and a post-washout group of surviving projects could support a future recovery. He also noted that while many tokens may still go to zero, the survivors could follow a familiar purge-and-rebirth pattern seen in earlier cycles.
McGlone didn’t rule out crypto eventually finding a bottom, but his message was that the market isn’t there yet. For now, he said, bitcoin and the wider crypto complex are still behaving like risk assets in a bear phase. Until equities correct more meaningfully and stay down for a while, rallies should be treated with caution—not as proof the cycle has turned.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $69,890.TradingView.com
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin Could Still Drop Below 10000 Warns Bloombergs McGlone
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 Who is Mike McGlone and why should I care about his opinion
Mike McGlone is a Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence a wellknown financial research firm His analysis is widely followed because he has a long track record of commenting on commodities and markets like Bitcoin so his warnings are taken seriously by investors
2 What does it mean that Bitcoin could drop below 10000
It means a prominent analyst is warning that the price of Bitcoin which has been much higher has a significant risk of falling back to a price level of 10000 per coin or even lower This would represent a major decline from recent prices
3 Why is he warning about this now
McGlones warning is typically based on analyzing market trends such as rising interest rates reduced liquidity in financial markets and Bitcoins historical price patterns during similar economic conditions He sees parallels with past bear markets
4 Is this a guarantee that Bitcoin will drop that low
No This is an analysts prediction or warning based on his models and research not a guarantee Financial markets are unpredictable and many other analysts have different views Its a risk assessment not a fact
5 Im new to crypto Should I sell everything based on this warning
Not necessarily Making impulsive decisions based on a single opinion is risky This warning should be a prompt to understand the volatility of crypto assess your own risk tolerance and consider your longterm investment strategy Never invest money you cant afford to lose
Advanced Practical Questions
6 What specific indicators or data is McGlone likely pointing to
He often cites macroeconomic factors like aggressive Federal Reserve policy which reduces the cheap money that often flowed into speculative assets like Bitcoin He may also look at Bitcoins 200week moving average declining market liquidity and its performance versus traditional assets like the US dollar
7 How does a liquidity drain from traditional markets affect Bitcoin
When central banks tighten financial conditions it pulls money out of the broader financial system Riskier assets often