Bitcoin (BTC) has entered an extreme oversold phase, with momentum indicators falling to levels that have historically signaled market exhaustion and a potential trend reversal. Analysts monitoring macroeconomic conditions and long-term price patterns suggest the current downturn represents a market reset rather than the end of the bull cycle. Based on past recovery trends, they believe Bitcoin could soon begin moving toward a new all-time high.
Thomas Lee, Co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Fundstrat Capital, has highlighted Bitcoin’s current market state as a significant technical development. He referenced analysis by Bittel Julien, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, which shows how deeply oversold Bitcoin has become in this cycle and its potential to reach a new peak.
In a post on X, Lee endorsed Julien’s research, noting that historically, such extreme oversold conditions in BTC have often been followed by strong rebounds. Julien shared his report on X earlier this week, explaining that it updates a long-running market model tracking Bitcoin’s behavior after major momentum declines.
His model examines Bitcoin’s average price path after its Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops below 30—a level widely viewed as indicating extreme oversold conditions. According to Julien, Bitcoin’s recent price movement has closely followed historical technical patterns, assuming the broader bull market structure remains in place.
An accompanying chart compares Bitcoin’s current price behavior with the average historical trajectory observed after the last five instances when the cryptocurrency entered oversold territory. The moment RSI falls below 30 is marked as “time zero.” In past cycles, this point was typically followed by stabilization and a strong recovery over subsequent weeks and months. Based on historical averages, Julien sees a potential path to new all-time highs if Bitcoin continues to follow past recovery trends. While he acknowledges the model isn’t perfect, he considers it a useful analytical tool, especially if the four-year cycle thesis continues to hold.
Julien’s analysis also suggests the current Bitcoin cycle could extend well into 2026, challenging the traditional four-year cycle narrative. He argues that Bitcoin’s cycles have never been driven by halving events, contrary to popular belief, but rather by public debt refinancing—a process delayed by a year due to COVID.
He notes that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is now effectively broken due to changes in the weighted average maturity of debt. Liquidity conditions and ongoing monetization of interest expenses, which outpace GDP growth, further support a prolonged cycle.
Julien adds that Bitcoin’s price bases typically take time to form and often include volatile periods before a significant upward move. His analysis is not a signal of an immediate downturn but a framework that assumes the bull market remains intact.
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoins Extreme Oversold Levels and Analyst Predictions
Beginner Questions
Q1 What does it mean when Bitcoin is extremely oversold
A Its a technical analysis term suggesting the price has dropped sharply and quickly possibly beyond what market fundamentals justify Analysts view it as a potential buying opportunity as the price may be due for a rebound
Q2 What is a new alltime high target
A Its a price level predicted by analysts that would exceed Bitcoins previous highest recorded price If analysts are setting new targets they believe the current downturn is temporary and significant growth is ahead
Q3 Is this a guarantee that Bitcoins price will go up
A No it is not a guarantee Analyst predictions and technical indicators are informed estimates not certainties The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile and unpredictable
Q4 As a beginner what should I do with this information
A Use it as educational insight into how markets are analyzed Do not make impulsive investment decisions based solely on headlines Always prioritize research understand the risks and never invest more than you can afford to lose
Q5 What tools are analysts using to say Bitcoin is oversold
A They often use technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index which measures the speed and change of price movements A very low RSI can signal an oversold condition
Intermediate Advanced Questions
Q6 What typically causes an extreme oversold condition in Bitcoin
A Its usually triggered by a wave of strong selling pressure which can be driven by negative news large investor selloffs broader market downturns or cascading liquidations in leveraged trades
Q7 If its oversold why is the price still low or falling
A Markets can remain oversold for extended periods An indicator being oversold signals a potential reversal point but it doesnt time the exact bottom Sentiment and macroeconomic factors can prolong a downturn
Q8 What are common new alltime high targets analysts are discussing
A Targets vary widely among analysts Following past cycles and models like StocktoFlow some predictions range from 100000 to 150