Bitcoin’s recent price rebound may not signal a full recovery, as new on-chain analysis suggests the uptick is occurring within a broader weak trend, largely driven by macroeconomic factors.
In a CryptoQuant QuickTake post, XWIN Research Japan argues that the market is in a “post-rebound adjustment” phase rather than a sustained recovery. The group points to the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike to 0.75%, which had been widely anticipated and failed to strengthen the yen. While a historically weak yen has typically fueled ‘yen-funded carry trades’—where Japanese investors borrow yen to buy riskier assets like cryptocurrencies—current data shows this pattern isn’t playing out.
This assessment is based on the Bitcoin Estimated Leverage Ratio, which measures leverage usage in futures markets relative to Bitcoin held on exchanges. The ratio has declined noticeably and hasn’t recovered even during recent price swings, indicating that yen-funded risk-taking remains limited rather than expanding.
Another concerning signal is the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and global exchanges. While the index has improved from deeply negative to moderate levels, this only suggests selling pressure is easing, not that U.S. spot investors are returning to buy. The absence of sustained spot demand implies the current recovery lacks the foundation for a structural uptrend.
However, the narrative could shift if the Coinbase Premium Index turns positive while prices rise without a surge in leverage—a combination that would signal healthy, demand-driven accumulation.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $88,034, down 0.84% over the past 24 hours.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoins Bearish Phase Recent Price Jump
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does bearish phase mean
A bearish phase is a prolonged period where prices are generally falling or stagnating and market sentiment is pessimistic Its the opposite of a bullish market
2 Bitcoins price just went up Isnt that bullish
A single price jump doesnt automatically end a bear market It could be a temporary rally or bull trap A true trend reversal requires sustained upward momentum over a longer period breaking key resistance levels
3 What are the main signs that Bitcoin is still in a bear market
Key signs include the price is still significantly down from its alltime high trading volume might be low during rallies negative macroeconomic factors and a lack of sustained fear of missing out from new investors
4 How long do Bitcoin bear markets typically last
Historically major Bitcoin bear markets have lasted between 1 to 15 years However every cycle is different and influenced by unique global events
5 Is it a bad time to buy Bitcoin during a bear market
Many longterm investors view bear markets as potential buying opportunities as prices are lower This strategy is called dollarcost averaging However prices can always go lower so never invest more than you can afford to lose
Advanced Practical Questions
6 Whats the difference between a bear market rally and a true trend reversal
A bear market rally is a sharp price increase that quickly fades failing to set new higher highs and higher lows on longer timeframes A true reversal shows sustained buying pressure breaks major resistance levels and holds those gains
7 What role do macroeconomic factors play in keeping Bitcoin bearish
Bitcoin is increasingly correlated with risk assets like tech stocks Factors like aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks reduce the appeal of speculative investments High inflation also pressures disposable income leaving less money for crypto investments
8 Can the Halving event change a bearish trend
The Halving has