Questions are emerging about whether Bitcoin is still in the expansion phase that many in the market believe it is. However, one crypto expert has taken a conservative view, suggesting that when analyzed through traditional cycle theory and macroeconomic indicators, Bitcoin’s primary bull cycle may already be over.
This expert, Tony Severino, challenges the optimistic claims of what he calls “snake oil salesmen,” pointing instead to economic data and historical patterns that indicate Bitcoin has already moved into a different phase.
PMI and ISM Data Point to Bitcoin’s Position
According to Severino, Bitcoin’s bullish cycle has already ended, and analysts claiming otherwise are promoting a hopeful story that may not materialize. His outlook is based on the U.S. ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index, which he considers a reliable macroeconomic gauge for cyclical trends.
The PMI data reveals a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, signaling a weakening manufacturing environment. Severino explains that real cycles are measured from trough to trough, not from speculative projections of future gains. From this perspective, the current PMI structure suggests the cycle has already peaked and is now declining.
At the time of writing, the index is around 47.9. Severino warns that a sustained drop below 46 would shift the PMI from a local pullback into a more significant intermediate downtrend. A fall below 41.6 would be even more serious, as it would drop below the low seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Such a decline would only be comparable to extreme historical periods, like the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis or the stagflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. This macroeconomic backdrop directly challenges the idea that Bitcoin is on the brink of a new, guaranteed bullish phase.
Severino also criticizes popular Bitcoin valuation models that compare it to gold or rely on long-term projections disconnected from economic reality. Currently, Bitcoin is lagging behind gold and silver, which are seeing consistent inflows, while Bitcoin shows signs of fatigue around the $80,000 level.
From Bullish Conviction to Bearish Targets
Severino’s current stance is notable because it marks a significant shift from his very bullish outlook before the current cycle began. His recent analysis shows Bitcoin breaking below a key moving average on the monthly chart. This is significant because similar breakdowns in the past were followed by average declines of around 50%.
The chart highlights several instances where Bitcoin fell by 40% to over 60% after losing this type of technical support. Based on this historical pattern, Severino suggests a potential downside target of at least $45,000 before another bullish reversal could occur.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Expert Claims Bitcoins Current Cycle Has Ended
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does it mean when someone says Bitcoins cycle has ended
A Bitcoin cycle typically refers to the multiyear pattern of a bull market followed by a bear market An expert claiming the cycle has ended is suggesting that the recent major price runup is over and we are now entering a new different phase
2 Who is making this claim and should I trust it
Various analysts and traders make these claims based on their interpretation of market data Its important to remember this is an opinion or a prediction not a fact You should never base financial decisions solely on one experts view Always do your own research and consider multiple perspectives
3 If the cycle has ended does that mean Bitcoins price will only go down now
Not necessarily Cycle end doesnt always mean an immediate prolonged crash It often signals the end of the explosive growth phase The price could enter a period of consolidation experience a significant correction or begin a slower more gradual bear market The key point is that the easy parabolic gains are likely over for now
4 What is a halving and how is it related to Bitcoin cycles
The Bitcoin halving is a preprogrammed event that cuts the reward miners receive for validating transactions in half It happens roughly every four years Historically halvings have been a major catalyst for new bull cycles because they reduce the new supply of Bitcoin entering the market Analysts often use the timing of halvings to define cycle lengths
5 As a beginner what should I do if I hear this news
First dont panic Avoid making impulsive buying or selling decisions based on headlines Use this as a learning opportunity Understand the reasoning behind the claim research what market cycles are and focus on the longterm principles of investing rather than trying to time the market
Advanced Practical Questions
6 What specific metrics or indicators are experts using to claim the cycle has ended
Common technical and onchain indicators include
Price Action Failure to break above previous alltime highs followed by a sustained breakdown below key support levels