Bitcoin is in a delicate position after falling below $90,000 and now trading in the mid-$80,000s. This decline has led some analysts to question whether the next major rally might be further off than anticipated. Crypto analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino’s recent technical outlook reinforces this concern, focusing on the 6-week LMACD momentum indicator, which has turned bearish for the first time in years.
Severino emphasizes that momentum has shifted downward, signaling that Bitcoin is far from the explosive recovery many are hoping for. The 6-week LMACD, known for confirming long-term trend changes, is a lagging indicator, meaning Bitcoin is already well into a downturn by the time it signals bearish. Historical data shows that after previous bearish crossovers, Bitcoin experienced prolonged declines lasting between 686 and 861 days, with market bottoms typically forming 250 to 365 days after the signal, not within weeks.
Past cycles also saw price drops of 69% to 75% from the crossover point, even after significant prior declines. Severino cautions that expecting a quick rebound ignores the indicator’s slow but consistent behavior.
Although the current LMACD signal is not yet confirmed for another 15 days, its similarity to past cycles is noteworthy. Severino isn’t dismissing Bitcoin’s long-term potential but advises against expecting rapid gains. While history doesn’t guarantee a repeat, the 6-week LMACD reflects deep structural trends, suggesting Bitcoin may be months away from its cycle low.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $85,670, down 11% over the past week and 23% over the last month. According to Severino’s analysis, the price could linger around these levels or decline further before any sustained recovery into a new bull market begins.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the topic Leading analyst warns Bitcoins recovery is highly improbable in the near future designed to be clear concise and helpful for a range of readers
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does this warning mean in simple terms
It means a financial expert who studies Bitcoin believes its price is unlikely to bounce back and reach new highs for the foreseeable future possibly for several months or longer
2 Why would a recovery be improbable
Analysts point to factors like high inflation and rising interest rates negative market sentiment and potential new government regulations
3 Should I sell my Bitcoin because of this warning
This is a personal financial decision A single analysts opinion shouldnt be your only guide Its crucial to consider your own financial goals how much risk you can handle and to do your own research before making any moves
4 Is Bitcoin going to become worthless
Most analysts do not believe Bitcoin will become worthless While its price can be extremely volatile it has a large global network and is considered by many as a significant digital asset similar to digital gold
5 What is a bear market
A bear market is a period when prices are falling and widespread pessimism causes a negative sentiment to dominate the market This warning suggests we are in a Bitcoin bear market
Advanced Practical Questions
6 What specific indicators are analysts looking at that suggest a slow recovery
They often look at technical indicators like the price trading below key moving averages low trading volumes and a lack of positive momentum Fundamentally they watch macroeconomic data and onchain metrics like reduced activity on the Bitcoin network
7 How does the broader stock market affect Bitcoins price
Recently Bitcoin has often moved in correlation with the stock market especially tech stocks When fears of a recession cause the stock market to fall investors often sell risky assets like Bitcoin causing its price to drop as well
8 Could a black swan event change this outlook
Yes A black swan is an unpredictable event with severe consequences A major positive event like a large country such as the US adopting Bitcoin as legal tender or a massive institutional adoption could potentially trigger a rapid recovery against