XRP has returned to a key technical level that has historically sparked major rallies. After a sharp 62% correction that pushed its price down to around $1.10 on February 6, the token is now testing its long-term ascending support trendline once more. This comes as the broader cryptocurrency market shows signs of recovery this week, with XRP rising roughly 6% on Wednesday and Bitcoin climbing back above the critical $70,000 level, restoring some optimism despite ongoing global tensions.
In a Wednesday report, market analyst Sam Daodu highlighted that XRP is sitting on the same rising trendline that preceded dramatic surges in the past, including a 630% rally in 2024 and an extraordinary surge of over 60,000% in 2017. What makes this retest different, Daodu noted, is that it is occurring for the first time with a fully established spot XRP ETF infrastructure in place. Since their launch in November 2025, U.S. spot XRP ETFs have attracted $1.24 billion in cumulative inflows over four consecutive positive months, with approximately 797 million XRP now held in ETF custody.
At the same time, institutional wallets accumulated an additional 170 million XRP during the recent price dip. Ripple also re-locked 700 million XRP into escrow on March 1, maintaining its standard release cycle and limiting new supply from entering the market. March seasonality adds another layer to the setup, as XRP has historically delivered an average return of 18% during this month over the past 12 years, making it statistically the strongest month of the first quarter.
From a technical standpoint, the $1.27 level represents the first area of support to watch, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and having served as a bear market floor throughout the correction. Below that, the $1.10–$1.11 zone marks the precise location of the long-term ascending trendline that held in February. A decisive break below $1.10 would represent the first failure of this channel since 2015 and could expose XRP to a deeper pullback toward $0.85–$1.00.
On the upside, $1.47 stands as the nearest Fibonacci resistance, followed closely by the $1.50 neckline of the double bottom pattern. A sustained close above $1.50 would confirm the pattern and project a move toward $1.68–$1.70. Beyond that range, on-chain data shows roughly 1.85 billion XRP accumulated between $1.76 and $1.80, a zone where holders may look to exit at breakeven, potentially creating substantial resistance.
The most significant supply cluster lies between $2.40 and $2.60; a weekly close above that band would invalidate the broader descending structure and signal a more decisive trend reversal. Combining historical March strength, capitulation signals, and structural supply constraints, Daodu suggests XRP could potentially reach a range between $2.50 and $4.00 by late 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about XRP testing a longterm trendline designed to be helpful for both new and experienced investors
Beginner Definition Questions
1 What does testing a longterm trendline mean
It means the price of XRP is approaching a line on a chart that connects its lowest points over many years This line represents a historical level of support where buyers have consistently stepped in to prevent the price from falling further
2 What is a massive rally of over 630
It refers to past instances where after touching this specific trendline the price of XRP skyrocketed increasing in value by more than 63 times
3 Why is this trendline considered so important
Because it has held as a support level for XRP for over 7 years through multiple market cycles In technical analysis the longer a trendline holds the more significant it is considered to be
4 Is this a guarantee that XRP will go up
No it is not a guarantee It is a historical pattern not a promise While it has sparked rallies before past performance does not guarantee future results The price could also break below the trendline
Intermediate Market Context Questions
5 What usually happens if XRP holds the trendline
If the price touches the trendline and then bounces upward with strong buying volume it is seen as a confirmation of the trendlines strength This often leads to increased bullish sentiment and can be the start of a new upward move
6 What happens if XRP breaks the trendline
If the price closes decisively below this longterm line on a weekly chart it is considered a major bearish signal It could indicate that the longterm uptrend is invalidated potentially leading to a significant price decline as sellers take control
7 Besides the trendline what else should I watch
Key things to watch include trading volume overall cryptocurrency market sentiment and any major news related to Ripple the SEC lawsuit or adoption
8 How is this different from regular price volatility
This trendline represents a multiyear structural level not