According to Glassnode, XRP is returning to a cost-basis pattern similar to one last observed in February 2022. Newer buyers are accumulating at price levels that leave a previous group of “top” buyers increasingly at a loss. This on-chain situation can influence selling pressure around key price areas.
In a note shared on Monday via X, the analytics firm highlighted a shift in realized prices among different holder age groups. “The current market structure for XRP closely resembles February 2022,” Glassnode stated, adding that “psychological pressure on top buyers builds over time.” This frames the current market activity as a test of patience rather than a source of reward.
What This Means For XRP’s Price
The firm’s key finding is that wallets active in the short term—roughly those holding from one week to one month—are buying at prices below the average cost basis of holders in the six-month to twelve-month group. Essentially, newer demand is entering at cheaper prices than what a significant portion of mid-term holders paid.
This relationship is important because different holder groups tend to act in specific ways when the price approaches their average cost. When the spot price falls below a group’s realized price, that group is, on average, holding at a loss. If the price rallies back toward that level, some of those holders may look to sell to break even. This creates selling pressure (overhead liquidity) that can limit upward movement until it is absorbed.
Glassnode’s “Realized Price by Age” chart illustrates this dynamic by comparing each group’s average cost against the spot price. A notable feature is the gap between the cost bases of short-term holders and the 6–12 month cohort during recent consolidation, mirroring the February 2022 comparison.
With XRP trading just below $2 again, a Glassnode post from November 24, 2025, is also relevant. In that post, the firm highlighted $2 as the level where stress among this holder group has been most evident in trading flows. “The $2.0 level remains a major psychological zone for Ripple holders,” Glassnode said. “Since early 2025, each retest of $2 saw $0.5B–$1.2B per week in losses,” indicating many holders have been selling at a loss as the price revisits that level.
These loss estimates are a crucial detail: they suggest $2 is not just a technical chart level, but a behavioral threshold where selling decisions intensify and capitulation can cluster.
In February 2022, XRP experienced a sharp fluctuation. After dropping to around $0.6034 on February 2, it surged to a monthly peak near $0.8758 on February 8, then declined through the latter half of the month as broader market risks increased. By February 23–24, XRP was back around $0.70 (roughly 20% below the February 8 high), before recovering to near $0.7856 by February 28. The late-month decline coincided with the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the invasion on February 24, which negatively impacted risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, in a broad market sell-off.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.9294.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about XRPs market pattern similarity to February 2022 designed to be clear and helpful for all levels of investors
Beginner General Questions
1 What does it mean that XRPs pattern is similar to February 2022
It means that the current way XRPs price is moving on the chartsits highs lows and trading volumelooks very similar to how it moved in the month leading up to a significant price surge that happened in late February 2022
2 Why is this comparison important
Historical patterns dont guarantee future results but traders use them to identify potential opportunities The February 2022 pattern preceded a rapid price increase so analysts are watching to see if history might repeat itself
3 What actually happened to XRP in February 2022
In late February 2022 XRPs price jumped over 70 in a few days This was driven by a combination of a broader market rally and positive developments in Ripples ongoing lawsuit with the SEC
4 Is this a guarantee that XRPs price will go up now
No it is not a guarantee Past performance never guarantees future results The similarity is an observation not a prediction The current market conditions and news are different now
5 Should I buy XRP because of this pattern
You should never invest based solely on a single pattern Always do your own research consider your financial goals and risk tolerance and understand that cryptocurrency is highly volatile
Intermediate Analytical Questions
6 What specific pattern are analysts like Glassnode looking at
They are likely looking at technical indicators like consolidation specific moving averages trading volume trends and the Relative Strength Index The pattern suggests a period of accumulation before a potential breakout
7 Whats different between the market now and in February 2022
Key differences exist the overall crypto market sentiment macroeconomic factors and the stage of Ripples lawsuit These factors can override any chart pattern
8 What is accumulation in this context
Accumulation is a phase where informed investors or large holders are steadily buying an asset over time often during a period of