The biggest resistance level above Bitcoin’s current price isn’t a round number or a chart pattern. It’s the break-even point for millions of holders who bought over the past year and are still losing money.
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One Level Controls The Narrative
A CryptoQuant market expert says the “bottom is in” crowd is jumping ahead of the data. According to the analyst, Bitcoin needs to reclaim and hold $88,880 before any bottom call can be taken seriously. Simply touching that level isn’t enough. The price must close above it and stay there—otherwise, the rally is just noise.
This reasoning is based on realized price bands, a metric that tracks the average cost basis for different groups of holders. Three groups are currently above Bitcoin’s spot price, meaning they bought at higher levels and are waiting to break even.
“The bottom is in.” Everyone’s saying it.
“For the bottom to be confirmed, price needs to clear 88.88K and hold – not wick through, not retest and fail. That puts the most recent cohort back in profit and removes the first layer of sell pressure.” – By @IT_Tech_PL pic.twitter.com/woRJLa6UTs — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 7, 2026
The first group—holders from three to six months ago—has a realized price of $88,880. Those who held for 12 to 18 months are at $93,400. The largest and most concerning group, holders from six to 12 months ago, has a cost basis of $111,800—nearly 30% above where Bitcoin was trading when the analysis was published. When Bitcoin climbs back toward those levels, many of these holders are expected to sell. They’re not looking for profit. They just want to get out.
Why The $60,000 Low Sparked Bottom Calls
Earlier this year, Bitcoin fell to around $60,000 in February—a drop of roughly 52% from its all-time high of $126,200. Since then, the price has risen more than 37% without setting a new low. That recovery is what fueled the bottom narrative. With no fresh lows on the chart, many market watchers concluded the worst was over for Bitcoin.
The Fear and Greed Index backed up the improving mood. Reports show the index climbed from a near-maximum fear reading of five in February all the way to 47—a neutral reading that signals the market has stabilized compared to its earlier panic state.
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Data Over Sentiment
IT Tech’s sharpest point came at the end of the analysis. Bottom calls, the analyst wrote, are narratives. Reclaiming and holding $88,880 is data. At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading near $80,250. That puts the key confirmation level roughly $8,000 away. Until that gap closes—and holds—the analyst says the market structure still favors caution over confidence.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about the concept that Bitcoin bulls still need one more signal to confirm the market has hit a bottom
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does it mean when people say Bitcoin has hit a bottom
It means the price has stopped falling and has reached its lowest point before starting to go back up again Its like the floor of a downturn
2 Why cant we just look at the price to know if its the bottom
Because the price can look low and then drop even lower A true bottom is only confirmed after the price starts rising again Right now we see signs of a possible bottom but not the final all clear signal
3 What is the one more signal that bulls are waiting for
Its a specific event or market change that would prove the selling pressure is completely gone This could be a sudden jump in trading volume a major positive news event or a technical indicator turning bullish
4 Is it safe to buy Bitcoin now if were waiting for this signal
Not necessarily Buying now is a bet that the bottom is in Waiting for the signal is a safer strategy because it confirms the trend has reversed even if you miss the absolute lowest price
5 What happens if that one more signal never comes
If the signal doesnt come it means the market hasnt truly bottomed out The price could continue to fall or just stay flat for a long time This is called a bear market rally or a dead cat bounce
Intermediate Advanced Questions
6 What specific technical indicators are bulls looking for as that final signal
Common signals include
A Golden Cross
A massive spike in trading volume on a green day showing strong buying interest
A break above a key resistance level that had previously stopped price increases
7 Does one more signal mean a single event or a combination of things
Often its a combination For example a trader might want to see a golden cross