A prominent crypto analyst claims that Bitcoin’s well-known four-year cycle no longer sets the tone for the cryptocurrency market. For months, both Bitcoin and leading altcoins have failed to recover their former peaks, even as traditional markets have surged. This divergence has led to debates about whether the old cycle pattern still holds and what might be next for crypto.
The analyst, known as @theunipcs on X with over 227,000 followers, has declared the Bitcoin four-year cycle dead. He argues it no longer dictates the behavior of Bitcoin or major altcoins.
Historically, crypto’s four-year cycles were tied to Bitcoin’s halving, which reduces new supply and typically sparks price rallies. However, according to Unipcs, this pattern no longer controls the market. Factors like monetary policy, Spot ETFs, liquidity shifts, macroeconomic conditions, and major liquidation events have dramatically changed the landscape.
He notes the market has been stuck in a prolonged phase of consolidation and accumulation, lacking the explosive moves usually seen after halvings. Bitcoin and top altcoins have been trading at depressed levels for months, roughly 30% or more below their all-time highs.
This stagnation contrasts sharply with other major assets. Silver has been reaching record levels almost daily, Gold continues to set new peaks, and major U.S. stock indexes like the S&P 500 are hitting fresh highs, while crypto lags behind.
The extended weakness was highlighted when Bitcoin fell below $85,000 earlier this month, after peaking above $126,000 in early October. Many altcoins, including Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, have followed a similar pattern—surging before plunging to new lows.
Technical indicators like the Fear & Greed Index show deeply negative investor sentiment, and analysts point to a bearish market structure. Overall, Unipcs’ analysis suggests the end of the historic four-year cycle, though he speculates it could pave the way for a new bullish phase in crypto.
What Comes Next for BTC and the Crypto Market?
Despite the prolonged slump, Unipcs believes the current accumulation phase may soon end, sparking an aggressive rally. He predicts that once the dormant market shifts into a new bullish phase, Bitcoin and major altcoins could explode to new all-time highs.
While the timing remains uncertain, the analyst is confident the market has potential for a decisive breakout and recovery. Unipcs states that crypto will eventually catch up and could soon outperform all other asset classes.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the topic The Bitcoin 4Year Cycle Is Over designed to cover questions from beginners to more advanced traders
Beginner Concept Questions
1 What is the Bitcoin 4Year Cycle everyone talks about
Its a historical pattern where Bitcoins price has gone through major bull and bear markets roughly every four years This is closely tied to the halving an event where the reward for mining new Bitcoin is cut in half slowing down new supply
2 Why do experts say this cycle is over
They mean the predictable repeating pattern of a massive bull run followed by a deep bear market all neatly contained within a fouryear window may no longer be a reliable model New factors like institutional investment and global macroeconomics are becoming bigger price drivers
3 What is the halving and why is it so important
The halving is a preprogrammed event in Bitcoins code that cuts the rate of new Bitcoin creation in half approximately every four years Its important because it reduces new supply which historically has led to increased scarcity and higher prices if demand stays the same or grows
4 If the old cycle is over does that mean Bitcoin wont go up anymore
Not at all It means the reasons and timing for price increases are changing Growth may become more gradual steadier and influenced by different factors rather than being driven almost solely by the posthalving scarcity narrative
Intermediate Market Impact Questions
5 What are the main new factors driving Bitcoins price now
The biggest new factors are 1 Spot Bitcoin ETFs 2 Global institutional adoption and 3 Macro conditions making Bitcoin act more like a risk asset at times
6 Should I still pay attention to the halving
Yes but view it as one important piece of the puzzle rather than the only catalyst The halving enforces Bitcoins scarcity but its price impact may be less predictable and immediate than in past cycles due to the new larger market