Ethereum (ETH) has had a tough start to the year, struggling through the first quarter and into the early part of the second. Still, it has managed to hold a key support level near $2,000. A new report from market analyst Sam Daodu outlines three possible paths for ETH for the rest of 2026, each tied to catalysts that could push the leading altcoin back above $4,000.
Bullish Path for Ethereum
Daodu’s analysis begins with price trends. He notes that Ethereum has been declining since the start of the year, with only a brief recovery. ETH started 2026 around $3,100, then dropped to a low of $1,743 in February—its weakest point since early 2023. Since then, the token has mostly traded sideways between roughly $2,000 and $2,400, suggesting consolidation rather than a clear recovery.
A key factor in the report is the upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade, which Daodu says could determine whether ETH revisits $4,000 in 2026. In his bullish scenario, Glamsterdam launches on schedule in June. The upgrade would cut gas fees by 78.6% and boost throughput to as much as 10,000 transactions per second. At the same time, news of the upgrade is expected to speed up inflows into Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the report also assumes Bitcoin (BTC) breaks above $90,000. Under these conditions, Daodu suggests ETH could rise above $4,000 in the third quarter and end the year between $5,000 and $7,500.
ETH Could Retest the February 2026 Low
In the base case, the outlook is more subdued. Daodu expects Glamsterdam to launch, but without a strong immediate market reaction. ETF inflows remain positive but slow, and Bitcoin is assumed to rise above $85,000 without a decisive breakout that would reignite risk appetite. In this scenario, Ethereum is still projected to clear $3,000 in the third quarter, then test $4,000 in the final part of 2026. However, the year-end result is more modest: ETH would close between $3,000 and $4,200.
The bear case is built around delays and macroeconomic pressure. Daodu assumes Glamsterdam is either pushed back to the last quarter of the year or launches with bugs. He also adds a more risk-averse environment, projecting that Bitcoin could fall below $70,000 due to inflation data or renewed hawkishness from the Federal Reserve, along with ETF outflows returning. If these assumptions hold, ETH would likely fail to hold current support and break below $2,085. From there, the report suggests Ethereum could retest the February 2026 low near $1,743 and end the year at or below today’s price. In this bearish scenario, the idea of ETH moving past $4,000 would likely shift to a 2027 discussion rather than a 2026 target. For now, the leading altcoin trades at $2,134.
Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the roadmap for Ethereums price for the rest of 2026 covering bull base and bear scenarios
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What is a bull scenario for Ethereum
A bull scenario means prices are expected to go up significantly In this case it assumes strong demand positive news and a booming crypto market
2 What is a bear scenario for Ethereum
A bear scenario means prices are expected to fall This usually happens due to bad news stricter regulations or a general economic downturn
3 What does base case mean
The base case is the most likely outcome if things go according to planneither extremely good nor extremely bad Think of it as the average expectation
4 Why are there different price predictions for Ethereum
Because no one can predict the future Different predictions are based on different assumptions about the economy technology and market sentiment
5 Is Ethereum a safe investment in 2026
No investment is completely safe Ethereum is considered less volatile than smaller cryptocurrencies but it can still drop 3050 in a bear market
IntermediateLevel Questions
6 What major factors could drive Ethereum into a bull scenario in 2026
Key drivers include mass adoption of decentralized finance successful scaling solutions and institutional investment
7 What could trigger a bear scenario for Ethereum in 2026
Common triggers include a global recession a major security breach stricter government regulations or a crypto winter where investor interest fades
8 How does Bitcoins price affect Ethereums price
Historically Ethereum often follows Bitcoins lead If Bitcoin rallies Ethereum usually rallies too but often with higher volatility If Bitcoin crashes Ethereum tends to drop even more
9 What is the Merge and does it still matter for 2026
The Merge happened in 2022 By 2026 its impact is mostly priced in However it still matters because it makes Ethereum more energyefficient and allows for staking rewards
10 Should I buy Ethereum now if I believe in the bull scenario
No one can time the market perfectly