Bitcoin (BTC) saw a modest recovery after hitting an eight-month low of $87,500 on Wednesday, climbing back toward $90,000 by Thursday. However, market analyst Leshka cautions that this uptick might only mark the beginning of a new distribution phase for Bitcoin, as selling pressure continues to mount.
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Leshka examined Bitcoin’s weekly chart and identified key demand zones between $40,700 and $47,500 that could develop through 2026. She believes these levels may form the bottom during the expected bear market. If this prediction holds, it would mean a price decline of 47% to 54% from current levels.
Despite these potential lows, Leshka remains positive about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. She suggested that if these price targets are reached, Bitcoin could stage a strong comeback, potentially hitting new all-time highs around $150,000 by 2027.
For now, though, bears seem to control the market. Analyst Ali Martinez recently observed that the TD Sequential indicator, which helps identify potential market reversals, has issued a sell signal for Bitcoin. Historically, this indicator has accurately predicted price corrections, with past instances leading to drops of 78% and 32%. A median correction based on these past downturns points to a possible target of $40,000, matching Leshka’s forecast.
Adding to the bearish outlook, technical analysis from Crypto Feras noted that Bitcoin has broken below its 50-day moving average (MA50) above $102,000, indicating a need for caution. Feras mentioned that the exponential moving averages (EMA89-99) might offer initial support at $88,500, often leading to a short-term “bearish retest” of the MA50 after a breakdown.
This potential rally could last two to five weeks and might see Bitcoin and altcoins perform well temporarily, though investors could mistake it for a bull market resurgence. Further support is seen at $84,000, which may be tested briefly. Feras suggested this could be a final bear trap before a more extended decline, a pattern that has occurred in the past.
Regarding a market turnaround, Feras stated that Bitcoin will remain in a bear market as long as it trades below its weekly MA50. Only when it reclaims this key moving average can discussions about a bull market or trend continuation begin. Until then, he stressed that it’s too early to consider Bitcoin’s current phase anything but bearish.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about a potential Bitcoin bear market based on the provided forecast
General Beginner Questions
1 What is a bear market
A bear market is a period when prices are falling or expected to fall typically by 20 or more from recent highs and investor sentiment is pessimistic
2 Is Bitcoin in a bear market right now
Based on the expert forecast predicting a drop to 40000 by 2026 the view is that we could be entering or are already in a sustained bear market phase
3 Why would the price of Bitcoin drop so low
Prices can drop due to a combination of factors like increased selling pressure negative regulatory news a weakening global economy or a shift in investor sentiment away from risky assets
4 Should I sell all my Bitcoin if a bear market is coming
This is a personal financial decision Some investors sell to avoid further losses while others see a bear market as a buying opportunity to accumulate at lower prices
5 Im new to this Is it a bad time to buy Bitcoin
For a new investor a bear market can be a chance to buy at lower prices but its also risky as prices could fall further Its crucial to only invest money you are willing to lose and consider a longterm strategy
Advanced Strategic Questions
6 What specific factors is this expert likely considering for a drop to 40000
The expert is likely analyzing macroeconomic factors onchain data and technical analysis of price charts to model future price support levels
7 How long do Bitcoin bear markets typically last
Historically Bitcoin bear markets have lasted anywhere from a few months to over a year A forecast to the end of 2026 suggests a prolonged period of downward or sideways price action
8 Whats the difference between a bear market and a normal price correction
A correction is a shortterm price drop of 1020 often seen as healthy within a bull market A bear market is a longerterm sustained downtrend that fundamentally changes market structure and sentiment
9 What trading or investment strategies work best in a bear market
Common strategies include DollarCost Averaging shortselling