Ethereum could significantly outperform Bitcoin over the next four years, according to one of the most optimistic forecasts from traditional banking. This view comes from Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, who shared the projection in a recent podcast.
While Bitcoin’s target grabs bigger headlines, the math shows greater potential gains for Ethereum. Kendrick’s base case forecasts Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2030—about 7.5 times its current price of around $66,400. Ethereum, now near $2,034, would need to hit $40,000 to meet his target, representing a roughly 20-fold increase. This means Ethereum holders could see nearly three times the relative return compared to Bitcoin investors if the prediction proves accurate.
Kendrick highlighted the ETH/BTC ratio as a key indicator to watch. Currently around 0.03, he expects it to climb to 0.04 in the near term, signaling Ethereum gaining ground relative to Bitcoin. He also offered a nearer-term checkpoint: if Bitcoin returns to $100,000 by the end of 2026, Ethereum should trade near $4,000. That would mean gains of about 50% for Bitcoin and 95% for Ethereum from current levels.
One reason for Kendrick’s bullish stance on Ethereum is the financial sector’s growing involvement in blockchain. He notes that large asset managers and banks often start their blockchain initiatives on Ethereum due to its reputation for safety and reliability. For example, BlackRock began developing blockchain products on Ethereum before expanding to other networks. Kendrick believes this pattern gives Ethereum a lasting advantage, with institutional demand likely to build steadily through the decade as more follow suit. He describes this as the “first phase” of real-world adoption, primarily unfolding on Ethereum even if activity later spreads to other blockchains.
Beyond institutional adoption, Kendrick points to network usage as a key price driver. Rising transaction fees on Ethereum-based applications reflect growing demand. As stablecoins, decentralized finance, and tokenized real-world assets continue to expand on the network, increased usage could push Ethereum’s value higher.
Kendrick shared these views in an interview on the Milk Road podcast. While Standard Chartered hasn’t released a formal research note with these specific figures, his comments have attracted widespread attention across the crypto community.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Standard Chartereds 500000 Bitcoin Prediction for 2030
Basics Context
Q What exactly did Standard Chartered predict
A Standard Chartered a major global bank published a research note predicting that Bitcoins price could reach 500000 by the year 2030
Q When was this prediction made
A The prediction was widely reported in March 2025 based on the banks updated research and longterm outlook
Q Is this a guaranteed forecast
A No This is an analytical prediction or scenario not a guarantee Financial forecasts especially longterm ones are highly uncertain and involve many assumptions
Reasons Analysis Behind the Prediction
Q Why do they think Bitcoin could go that high
A Their analysis is primarily based on the potential of Bitcoin to become a major global reserve asset for institutional investors and nations alongside its role as digital gold They point to increased adoption the upcoming Bitcoin halving cycles reducing new supply and potential inflows from new financial products like US spot Bitcoin ETFs
Q What does digital gold mean in this context
A It means Bitcoin is seen as a store of value and a hedge against inflation similar to gold but in a digital decentralized form that is easier to transfer and divide
Q Did they give a specific path or timeline to 500000
A Their report outlined a stepbystep path suggesting Bitcoin could reach 200000 by the end of 2025 if ETF inflows remain strong setting the stage for the longerterm climb toward 500000 by 2030
Risks Considerations
Q What are the biggest risks that could prevent this from happening
A Key risks include stricter global government regulations a major technological flaw or security breach a prolonged crypto market downturn the rise of a superior competitor or a broader failure to achieve mainstream institutional adoption
Q Has Standard Chartered made big Bitcoin predictions before
A Yes They have a history of bullish forecasts For example in 2023 they predicted Bitcoin could reach 100000 by the end of 2024 This new prediction is a significant upward revision of their longterm view
Q Are other major banks this bullish on Bitcoin
A Opinions vary widely