Expert trader Tony Severino, who previously called Bitcoin’s peak, now suggests the cryptocurrency could crash to $4,000. Bitcoin continues to face difficulty surpassing key resistance levels, indicating a risk of further decline.
In a post on X, Severino questioned whether the next Bitcoin bull market might form a lower high followed by a lower low. His analysis included a chart suggesting Bitcoin could be forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, which might trigger a drop to $4,000. He advised traders to navigate the current market ranges and cycles carefully.
When discussing a potential bottom for Bitcoin in this bear market, Severino noted that pinpointing a bottom is speculative and can shift over time. He observed that Bitcoin is finding short-term bottoms now, but a long-term bottom may still be some way off.
Severino recently projected a maximum drawdown of about 72% for Bitcoin in this cycle, which would place the bottom near $34,000. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also predicted Bitcoin could fall to around $40,000 before stabilizing. Despite a recent rally to $70,000, Bitcoin’s ongoing struggles suggest the risk of a deeper decline remains.
On-chain analytics platform Glassnode noted in an X post that profit-taking is dampening momentum at the $70,000 level. They added that this pattern fits a thin-liquidity environment, where even modest selling can hinder recovery efforts.
How Bitcoin Could Fall to $30,000
Crypto analyst Willy Woo pointed out that Bitcoin has only experienced a secular global macro bull market from 2009 to 2026. He warned that if the global macro environment weakens, Bitcoin could fall back to $30,000 as a key support level, with $16,000 as the final defense for maintaining its long-term bull trend.
Woo believes a more typical bear-market bottom for Bitcoin would be around $45,000. He noted that the recent bearish sell-off appears to have run its course, which could allow the price to consolidate sideways for a month before potentially rebounding to the mid-$70,000 range—though he expects that level to face rejection.
According to Woo, the broader market regime remains heavily bearish, with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating. He predicts the bearish trend could end in the fourth quarter, with bullish momentum likely returning in the first or second quarter of 2027.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $67,800, down slightly over the past 24 hours.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Expert Traders Bitcoin Forecast
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 Who is this expert trader and why should I listen to them
This is a trader who gained attention for correctly predicting Bitcoins last major alltime high price Their past accuracy on a major market move gives their current analysis more weight though its never a guarantee of future correctness
2 What exactly are they predicting now
Based on a shared chart analysis they are suggesting that Bitcoins price could potentially drop to below 4000 This is a bearish forecast contrasting sharply with the current price
3 What is a chart analysis in trading
Chart analysis or technical analysis involves studying past price movements and trading volume on graphs to identify patterns and trends that might suggest where the price could go next
4 Should I sell all my Bitcoin immediately because of this prediction
Not necessarily A single prediction even from a credible source is just one piece of information You should never make major financial decisions based solely on one opinion Consider your own investment goals risk tolerance and do your own research
5 What does fall below 4000 mean for the overall crypto market
Such a severe drop in Bitcoin the market leader would likely cause a massive downturn across almost all other cryptocurrencies as their prices are heavily influenced by Bitcoins movements
Advanced Practical Questions
6 What specific chart pattern or indicator is this trader likely referencing
While the exact chart isnt specified here predictions of a deep crash often point to longterm patterns like a potential head and shoulders top on a macro scale a breakdown from a multiyear support level or bearish signals from weeklymonthly momentum indicators like the RSI or MACD
7 What are the main arguments or conditions for this bearish scenario to unfold
The case might involve a prolonged global economic recession a major regulatory crackdown a critical failure in blockchain technology or a massive shift of capital away from risky assets The chart would signal that the market structure is weakening to allow such a drop
8 Whats the biggest counterargument to this prediction
Key counterarguments include continued institutional adoption Bitcoins fixed supply and halving cycles historically driving bull markets