Dogecoin is trying to stabilize following a sharp sell-off, and one analyst believes the market has signaled its critical support level. In a weekly chart shared on X, independent analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) points to a “solid bounce” from the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) and a quick return to the dominant trading range of the year. At the time of the chart, Dogecoin was trading near $0.1828, with the 200-week moving average rising just below the market around $0.16.
Is this the local bottom for Dogecoin? Kevin’s approach is straightforward and focused on key price levels. He identifies $0.202 as the immediate pivot point, based on three-day closing prices. If Dogecoin reclaims $0.202, he says, it would move back above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and the 3-day 200 EMA and SMA, setting the stage for upward momentum—provided Bitcoin also stays above $106,800.
The 200-week EMA has supported Dogecoin’s bullish structure six times since last summer. It continues to rise and remains the key level for buyers. Above that, the main pattern is a narrow, upward-sloping channel marked by two trendlines, with multiple touches confirming both support and resistance along the way.
Price dipped sharply to the lower trendline but then bounced, defending both the channel and the 200-week average near $0.16. This move returned Dogecoin to its previous trading range, with key resistance levels stacked closely overhead: $0.24, $0.26, $0.285, and $0.305. These levels align with past weekly turning points and repeated tests of the upper trendline during the summer and early fall.
Below, the chart shows several support levels in case the bounce weakens. The first is a green horizontal line around $0.14, followed by weekly support shelves at $0.09 and $0.05. These levels are reinforced by remnants of an older, downward-sloping trendline, which now lies just below the recent low and helps explain the strong buying during the sell-off.
On the upside, the path is clear. A sustained move above $0.202 on three-day closes is the trigger Kevin is watching. Beyond that, the market faces resistance between $0.21 and $0.24, followed by more significant highs near $0.285 and $0.305. Higher-timeframe Fibonacci levels and historical weekly resistances are noted at $0.42, $0.54, and $0.74, but Kevin’s focus remains on the near-term reclaim of $0.202 and the moving averages around that level.
In summary, the bounce from the 200-week EMA (around $0.16) kept Dogecoin within its year-long channel and maintained a pattern of higher lows. Whether this bounce leads to a continued uptrend depends on reclaiming $0.202 on the three-day chart—Kevin’s confirmation level—and Bitcoin holding above $106,800. Until then, Dogecoin remains range-bound, with buyers defending the lower trendline and sellers controlling the upper one.
In a post on X, Kevin wrote: “Solid bounce for Dogecoin off the weekly 200 EMA, bringing it back into the range it has traded in for most of the year. Along with Bitcoin reclaiming $106,800, we need to see DOGE reclaim the $0.202 level on three-day closes, which would place it above the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the 3-day 200 EMA/SMA. If both happen, it could create upward momentum for Bitcoin and Dogecoin.”
At the time of writing, Dogecoin was trading at $0.17678.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of helpful and clear FAQs about whether Dogecoin has hit its lowest point based on an analysts perspective
General Beginner Questions
1 What does it mean when people ask if Dogecoin has hit its lowest point
This phrase refers to the lowest price Dogecoin might reach in a market downturn before it potentially starts to recover and increase in value again
2 Can anyone know for sure if Dogecoin has hit its bottom
No its impossible to know for sure Predicting the absolute lowest point is extremely difficult even for experts Analysts can only identify signs that suggest a bottom might be near
3 Why is Dogecoins price so volatile
Dogecoins price is heavily influenced by social media trends celebrity endorsements and overall market sentiment making it more unpredictable than many other cryptocurrencies
4 Im new to this Whats the biggest risk of trying to buy at the lowest point
The biggest risk is catching a falling knife This means you might buy what you think is the low but the price could continue to fall significantly leading to immediate losses
Analyst Insights Key Factors
5 What key factors would an analyst watch to spot a potential bottom
An analyst would typically watch for
Slowing SellOffs A decrease in heavy selling pressure
Market Sentiment When fear and negative news are at an extreme it can sometimes signal a turning point
Trading Volume A potential bottom might see lower selling volume or a spike in buying volume
Support Levels Key price points where Dogecoin has historically stopped falling
6 How does the overall crypto market affect Dogecoins price
Dogecoin is highly correlated with Bitcoin and the broader crypto market If Bitcoin is in a deep downturn its very likely Dogecoin will be too and its true bottom may depend on a broader market recovery
7 What role do whales play in finding a bottom
If large holders stop selling off their Dogecoin and start accumulating more it can be a strong signal that a bottom is forming as they believe the price is at a good value