A new forecast from an XRP analyst is sparking renewed interest in how rapidly spot ETFs could absorb available tokens if strong inflows continue. The model uses straightforward, large numbers to pose a clear question: what occurs when consistent ETF buying encounters a limited public supply?
Analyst Chad Steingraber suggests that a single XRP ETF might see average daily inflows of $90 million. With 12 such ETFs, that totals $1.08 billion per day. If half of these flows generate new demand for XRP, issuers would need to purchase approximately $504 million worth—about 229 million XRP—in just one day.
Extend this rate over a week, and the total rises to 1.14 billion XRP. Over a month, it reaches 4.58 billion XRP. After six months, the model estimates 27.49 billion XRP, nearly half of the roughly 60 billion XRP currently in circulation. At this pace for a full year, the entire public supply could theoretically be absorbed unless price increases slow down buying.
Early fund flows indicate demand but not a shock. Canary Capital’s XRPC ETF started with $245 million on its first day, followed by $25.41 million and $8.32 million over the next two days, bringing its assets to $277 million. Franklin Templeton’s EZRP is set to launch on November 24, with market estimates for first-day demand between $150–$250 million. Five other issuers—Bitwise, Grayscale, 21Shares, Valkyrie, and CoinShares—are also in line.
Community calculations, assuming seven ETFs, project annual inflows of $7.2 billion—a substantial sum. However, the market response has been subdued rather than dramatic. Analysts note that fund purchases don’t immediately impact public exchanges; trades settle on a specific cycle, and many issuers buy XRP over-the-counter. This means large amounts could be accumulated quietly before affecting exchange order books or spot prices.
XRP’s price hasn’t risen in tandem with ETF news, remaining around $2.14 and falling over 14% since last week. Technical analysts are cautioning about potential declines. One analyst, Nebraskangooner, highlights a failed breakout from a descending triangle and sets a target near $1.50—about a 30% drop from recent levels around $2.15. The chart analysis points to a rally to a yearly high of $3.66 in July, a late-October attempt to break higher, and a subsequent drop below support at approximately $2.2.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of helpful and clear FAQs about the potential for an XRP supply shock due to ETFs
Beginner Definition Questions
1 What is an XRP supply shock
An XRP supply shock is a situation where the demand for XRP suddenly becomes much greater than the amount of XRP available for people to buy This can cause the price to rise sharply
2 What is an ETF
An ETF or ExchangeTraded Fund is like a basket of assets that you can buy and sell on a stock market For example a Bitcoin ETF holds Bitcoin An XRP ETF would hold XRP allowing people to invest in it through their regular stock brokerage account without needing a crypto wallet
3 What does absorb the entire available supply mean
It means that if an XRP ETF is created and becomes very popular the fund might need to buy up so much XRP to meet investor demand that there could be very little XRP left for regular people to purchase on the open market
Mechanism Impact Questions
4 How would an ETF cause a supply shock
The company managing the ETF would have to buy massive amounts of XRP to back the shares it sells to investors If demand for the ETF is high their constant large purchases could quickly use up the XRP that is readily available for trading
5 Why is the available supply of XRP limited
While there are billions of XRP in total a large portion is held in escrow by Ripple and released slowly over time The available supply refers to the XRP actually circulating on exchanges that people can trade This is the portion an ETF would target
6 If an ETF absorbs the supply what happens to the price
Basic economics suggests that if demand skyrockets while the available supply shrinks the price of XRP would be expected to increase significantly
Risks Considerations
7 Is a supply shock guaranteed to happen
No its not guaranteed Its a prediction based on the potential high demand for an XRP ETF If an ETF is never approved or if it is approved but investor interest is low a supply shock would not occur
8 What are the risks for an investor if this happens
The main risk is volatility A rapid price increase