Crypto analyst Chain Mind has suggested that Bitcoin’s price hasn’t hit its lowest point yet. He pointed to past trends, noting that Bitcoin has never reached a bottom without first touching the 300-week exponential moving average (EMA 300).
Bitcoin Price Unlikely To Bottom Before Touching This Level
In a post on X, Chain Mind said Bitcoin probably won’t bottom out until it hits the EMA 300. He explained that BTC has never formed a bottom without touching this level, just like in 2020 and 2022 when it tagged the weekly EMA 300 right before the cycle low. Specifically, in 2020, Bitcoin’s bottom was 10% below the EMA, and in 2022, it was 15% below.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Repeating This Midterm Pattern That Sends Price Tumbling 15% On Average
The analyst noted that in the current cycle, Bitcoin bounced from $60,000 without ever reaching the EMA, which suggests the real bottom hasn’t happened yet. He added that if the pattern repeats, BTC would need to drop to around $58,000 to mark the final bottom of this bear cycle. In another post on X, he said BTC is mirroring the price action from the 2022 bear market.
This came as he pointed out that Bitcoin had just rejected the 200-day moving average (200MA), a move that also happened in 2022. He explained that this confirms the bearish macro structure after BTC touched the 200-day MA again at $82,000. So, if the 2022 pattern repeats, the leading cryptocurrency would need to drop 40% to 60% from the rejection point. He added that this means the real cycle bottom should be around the $50,000 to $55,000 range.
Bitcoin is once again in a downtrend after failing to hold above the key $80,000 level. This is happening alongside bearish factors like the US-Iran conflict, rising inflation, and expectations of a Fed rate hike this year. BTC’s latest drop came after the SEC delayed its approval of tokenized stocks.
The Plan Remains The Same For BTC
Crypto analyst Kaleo said the plan for Bitcoin’s price hasn’t changed, even though traders on Kalshi are betting against a rally to $100,000 this year. He urged market participants to take a broader view and be more optimistic. As for what might happen, he predicts a retest in the lower $70,000 range, then a rebound to between $80,000 and $90,000, and a period of trading in that range over the summer.
Related Reading: If You’re Looking To Bitcoin Above $90,000, This Analyst Says To Watch This Bearish OB Level
After that, the analyst predicts Bitcoin will rally above $100,000 and reach a new all-time high (ATH) in the fall and winter. Notably, the CLARITY Act could pass between now and then, which might trigger a massive rally for the leading cryptocurrency.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $75,400, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the statement Based on past performance Bitcoins price wont hit its lowest point until it reaches a specific level
BeginnerLevel Questions
Q What does based on past performance mean for Bitcoin
A It means looking at Bitcoins previous market cycles to guess what might happen next Its like studying a stocks history to predict its future
Q How do people figure out that specific level for Bitcoins lowest point
A They use tools like support lines previous cycle lows or the 200week moving average For example in past cycles Bitcoin often bottomed out near the price of its previous alltime high from the prior cycle
Q Is it guaranteed that Bitcoin will hit that specific low price
A No Past performance is a guide not a promise The market could surprise everyone by going lower or not reaching that level at all due to new regulations adoption or economic changes
Q Why do people even care about the lowest point
A They want to buy the dip purchasing Bitcoin at the cheapest price before it goes back up If you buy at the bottom you maximize your potential profit
IntermediateLevel Questions
Q What is the 200week moving average and why is it a key low point
A Its the average price of Bitcoin over the last 200 weeks Historically Bitcoin has never closed a weekly candle below this line during a bear market Many traders believe it acts as a floor or final support level
Q How does the previous cycle alltime high act as a target for the bottom
A In the 20182019 bear market Bitcoins price fell to roughly the same level as its 2013 alltime high Similarly in 2022 it fell to around 16000 which was close to the 2017 alltime high This pattern suggests the next low might be near the 2021 peak
Q Doesnt diminishing returns break the pattern of hitting that specific level