As Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to stay below $90,000, market sentiment is shifting toward the possibility of a new bear market. Analyst Ali Martinez has compared current trends with historical cycles to forecast Bitcoin’s potential path.
In a recent post, Martinez pointed out a recurring pattern: it typically takes about 1,064 days for Bitcoin to move from a market bottom to a top, followed by roughly 364 days from a peak to the next bottom.
In the first observed cycle, the market bottomed in January 2015 and peaked in December 2017—exactly 1,064 days later. A 364-day bear market then followed, ending with a bottom in December 2018.
The second cycle repeated this pattern: a bottom in December 2018 led to a peak in November 2021, again after 1,064 days. Another downturn followed, bringing Bitcoin to around $15,500 by November 2022.
Martinez suggests we are now in a third cycle, which began with a bottom in November 2022 and saw a peak above $126,000 in October 2024. Based on historical patterns, Bitcoin is currently within the 364-day correction phase, which could point to a potential bottom around October 2026—about 288 days from now.
Looking at past bear markets provides further insight. The 2017–2018 correction saw a drop of about 84%, while the 2021–2022 decline retraced roughly 77%. Averaging these two, Martinez estimates a potential 80% retracement, which could place Bitcoin’s next market bottom near $37,500.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading just above $88,290, about 30% below its recent peak.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin Correction Could Extend to October 2026
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does a correction mean for Bitcoin
A correction is a significant price drop typically 10 or more from a recent peak Its a normal part of market cycles not necessarily a sign of failure
2 Who is suggesting this correction could last until October 2026
This specific timeline is an analysis from a market analyst Different analysts have different models and opinions so this is one prediction not a guaranteed fact
3 Why would a correction last that long
Analysts often look at historical patterns Some believe Bitcoin follows longterm cycles A multiyear correction could be part of a larger consolidation phase after a major bull run where the market cools off and finds a new foundation
4 Should I sell all my Bitcoin if I hear this
Not necessarily This is one prediction Longterm investors often view major corrections as potential buying opportunities believing in Bitcoins value over decades not just years Never make decisions based on a single piece of analysis
5 What happens to Bitcoin in October 2026
Nothing is predetermined The analyst likely suggests thats when the current corrective phase could end potentially setting the stage for the next major market cycle Its a projected turning point not an event
Advanced Practical Questions
6 What analysis method suggests a date as specific as October 2026
This often involves technical analysis using longterm charts cycle theory and tools like the StocktoFlow model or Fibonacci time extensions Its an attempt to project past rhythmic patterns into the future
7 How reliable are these longterm price predictions
They are highly speculative While historical cycles can provide context the future is uncertain Unforeseen events can disrupt any model Treat them as interesting scenarios not financial advice
8 What are the benefits of a long correction for the market
It can weed out excessive speculation leverage and weak projects It allows for healthier more sustainable growth built on real development and adoption not just hype It can also lower the entry price for new investors