The crypto market has seen a modest rebound over the past three weeks, with its total market cap returning to $3.07 trillion. Bitcoin has risen 11% from its recent low of $80,700, while Ethereum has gained 18% in the same period. Despite these gains, market analyst PelinayPA suggests that a bear market has already begun based on certain technical indicators.
Speculation about a bear market intensified in Q4 2025 as the crypto market experienced significant corrections, with Bitcoin alone falling roughly 36.5%. Although prices have stabilized somewhat recently, many analysts believe bears are now in control, leaving little room for a full bullish reversal.
Examining Bitcoin’s chart, PelinayPA notes that the price is currently trading below its short-term (7, 14), medium-term (30, 50), and long-term (100) moving averages, signaling strong seller dominance. More concerning is that these averages are sloping downward, suggesting the recent downtrend may not be temporary. The analyst adds that these moving averages are acting as resistance—a classic bear-market pattern that often triggers selling when the price approaches them. Additionally, selling pressure appears aggressive, with red candles accompanied by higher volume, while green candles show relatively lower volume, indicating hesitant buying.
Based on these observations, PelinayPA argues that Bitcoin is not beginning a bullish reversal but is instead experiencing a temporary reaction within a larger bear market.
Ethereum’s chart tells a similar story, with price trading below key moving averages. However, its short-term MAs (7, 14) are starting to turn upward. Bounces from lows appear steadier and stronger, and candles show shorter wicks, suggesting selling pressure is easing and buying interest persists.
While Ethereum appears stronger than Bitcoin, PelinayPA believes it still lacks the bullish momentum to reverse the trend, as long-term moving averages remain downward-sloping and buying volume stays low.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $90,155, down 0.22% over the past 24 hours. Daily trading volume has fallen 20.34% to $64.22 billion. According to PelinayPA, Bitcoin’s bull rally has ended, and a deeper correction is needed before another parabolic surge or all-time high can occur. The analyst predicts Bitcoin could bottom around $50,000 in the ongoing bear market—a potential decline of 44.4% from current levels.
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoin Ethereum Market Downturns
BeginnerLevel Questions
What does a prolonged downturn or bear market mean in crypto
A prolonged downturn often called a bear market is a period where prices for assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum fall significantly and stay low for an extended timeoften months or even years Its typically marked by widespread pessimism and low trading volume
Why are Bitcoin and Ethereum prices falling
Prices can fall for many reasons including broader economic factors negative regulatory news large investors selling reduced demand or a loss of confidence in the markets shortterm prospects
Is my crypto investment gone forever if prices keep dropping
Not necessarily The value on your screen is only a loss if you sell Cryptocurrency markets are highly cyclical and volatile Many assets have recovered from previous downturns though past performance doesnt guarantee future results Only invest what you can afford to lose
Should I buy more Bitcoin or Ethereum now that prices are low
This is a personal financial decision Some investors see downturns as buying opportunities believing prices will eventually recover However you should never invest money you cant afford to lose and prices could go lower Consider dollarcost averaging to reduce risk
How long do these crypto downturns usually last
Theres no set timeline Historical crypto bear markets have lasted anywhere from a few months to over two years The broader economic environment plays a huge role
Intermediate Advanced Questions
Whats the difference between a normal correction and a prolonged bear market
A correction is a shorterterm price drop typically defined as a decline of 1020 from a recent peak A prolonged bear market is a deeper sustained decline across the market characterized by a fundamental shift in sentiment and economic conditions
Are there any onchain metrics that signal a prolonged downturn
Yes analysts look at metrics like
MVRV Ratio Compares market value to realized value A low ratio can indicate assets are undervalued