Anthony Scaramucci has said that Bitcoin might not see a real recovery until October or November. He believes the current downturn is still in line with Bitcoin’s usual four-year cycle, even though the regulatory environment in Washington is now more favorable. Speaking on the Thinking Crypto podcast at the Solana Policy Summit, the founder of SkyBridge Capital described the market weakness as a cyclical bear phase, not a fundamental shift. He noted that investors had hoped for a stronger rally driven by policy changes after the new US administration took office, but whales and long-term holders have kept selling into the demand from Bitcoin ETFs.
“I’m old school. I’ve always thought this is a cyclical bear market, typical of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle,” Scaramucci said. “We’ve just passed the halfway point of the halving, so we’re heading into the second half. You usually don’t see any real recovery until the first quarter of next year.”
Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Disbelief Phase As Traders Keep Shorting The Rally
Scaramucci added that Bitcoin’s timeline might have been slightly sped up by macro factors, like President Donald Trump’s tariff-related messages and geopolitical tensions. Still, he said Bitcoin has stayed “fairly sticky” during the war period mentioned in the interview. “You probably won’t see a recovery in Bitcoin until maybe the first month of the last quarter,” he said, pointing to “October, possibly November” as a more realistic timeframe.
### Why Bitcoin ETF Demand Has Not Been Enough
These comments address a major frustration in the crypto market: why prices haven’t responded more strongly to a pro-crypto administration, institutional ETF access, and improving legislative momentum. According to Scaramucci, part of the answer lies in supply. ETF activity has brought in new Bitcoin buyers, including older investors using traditional brokerage accounts, but that demand has been met with heavy selling from whales and early holders.
“You’re still seeing a lot of Bitcoin buying. A lot of boomers are buying Bitcoin, but it’s just not enough,” he said. “You’ve got whales selling into it—the OGs in this industry believe in the four-year cycle. So what they do is fulfill the prophecy of the four-year cycle by acting on it and selling.”
He said whales were “pumping lots of coins into the supply at around $100,000,” which he believes helped push Bitcoin down to the high $60,000s. Scaramucci also linked Bitcoin’s next phase of institutional adoption to US market-structure legislation, especially the Clarity Act. He argued that the idea Bitcoin is “valueless” is now “completely off the table,” but said banks are unlikely to move aggressively without clearer rules.
“If you don’t get the Clarity Act legislation passed, you’re not going to get the banks to really open up,” he said. He pointed to experimental custody programs at Bank of New York and SoFi, but argued that real adoption requires major money-center banks to offer custody, yield, and borrowing against Bitcoin on more competitive terms. Until then, he said, investors won’t see “real full-throated adoption.”
Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Rebuild As Futures Metric Hits 4-Month High
Scaramucci also criticized the political and lobbying dynamics around stablecoin yield and crypto legislation. He said banks are pushing back because of their entrenched market position, while warning that holding out for a perfect bill could slow progress. “I’m a little more practical. I probably would have tried to get something done and I would not make the perfect deal the enemy of progress,” he said. “The best example I can give you is the Bitcoin ETF. Gary Gensler hates us. He did not want that to happen. He lost the lawsuit, so he was forced to have it happen.”
### Bitcoin Reserve Debate Still Politicized
On the question of whether the US government should hold Bitcoin in strategic reserves, Scaramucci said yes, but only if the issue is handled carefully.We can move beyond partisan politics on this issue. “It’s very hard to hold Bitcoin in a strategic reserve if it’s a partisan issue,” he said. “If we can make this a post-partisan question about what’s right or wrong for the country and for American taxpayers, then the answer is yes.” He added that he wouldn’t push the issue aggressively until there’s broader agreement. Instead, he supports keeping Bitcoin the government already holds from legal actions, rather than selling it. He also said he wasn’t sure if the U.S. government has completed an audit of its Bitcoin holdings. As of press time, BTC was trading at $77,844. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the statement Bitcoin might not recover until October according to Scaramucci
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 Who is Scaramucci and why should I care what he says about Bitcoin
Anthony Scaramucci is a wellknown financier and founder of SkyBridge Capital a firm that invests heavily in Bitcoin Hes also a former White House communications director People pay attention because he has deep connections in both finance and politics
2 What does recover mean for Bitcoin in this context
It means Bitcoins price climbing back up to its previous alltime high or a major high point from earlier in the year after a significant drop
3 Why would Bitcoin take until October to recover
Scaramucci points to seasonal trends and market cycles Historically Bitcoin often has quiet lowperforming periods in the summer and early fall followed by a big rally towards the end of the year He thinks this pattern will repeat
4 Is this a guarantee that Bitcoin wont go up until October
No Its just one persons prediction The crypto market is highly unpredictable Many other analysts disagree and think a recovery could happen sooner
5 If I buy Bitcoin now should I expect to lose money until October
Not necessarily The price could go up or down in the meantime Scaramuccis prediction is just a forecast about a full recovery to a peak not a guarantee of daily losses
AdvancedLevel Questions
6 What specific market factors is Scaramucci basing his October prediction on
He often cites the Bitcoin halving cycle historical price action after halvings and the seasonal summer doldrums effect He also points to reduced liquidity from institutional investors during the summer months and potential political clarity around the US election in November
7 Does this prediction account for potential ETF inflows or regulatory changes
Scaramucci believes that spot Bitcoin ETFs will eventually drive huge demand but he thinks the initial hype has faded He argues that real institutional adoption takes time to filter through and that a major catalyst is needed for a full recovery