Ethereum is trading above $3,200 as buyers try to push the price toward higher resistance levels, though market sentiment remains fragile. Fear and uncertainty persist, with several analysts warning that the broader trend could still point to a potential bear market. However, beneath the volatile price movements, key on-chain data is revealing a development that may shape Ethereum’s next major phase.
According to a new CryptoQuant report, a historic signal linked to the realized price of whales holding over 100,000 ETH has reappeared. This metric, which tracks the average cost basis of the largest holders, has only been tested a few times in the past five years—each instance occurring during decisive turning points in Ethereum’s long-term trend. Whenever ETH has approached or traded near this realized price, it has signaled either the exhaustion of a deep downtrend or the start of a strong recovery phase.
Today, Ethereum is once again hovering near this critical threshold. With analysts divided and sentiment weakening, the whale realized price has become one of the most important indicators to watch. Whether ETH bounces or breaks below this level could determine the direction of the next major trend cycle.
The CryptoQuant report emphasizes the significance of Ethereum’s proximity to the realized price of whales holding at least 100,000 ETH. Over the past five years, ETH has traded near this level only four times. Two of those instances took place during the capitulation phase of the 2022 bear market, when selling pressure peaked and long-term confidence was severely tested. The other two have occurred this year, highlighting how unusual and potentially cycle-defining the current environment is.
This metric is particularly notable for its historical reliability. In the past five years, Ethereum has never traded below the realized price of these major whales. This level has consistently acted as a structural floor, marking points where the largest and most sophisticated holders refuse to sell at a loss. Their behavior often signals periods of deep undervaluation or macro exhaustion in the market.
Currently, that realized price sits around $2,500, putting Ethereum within striking distance of a level that has repeatedly separated long-term accumulation zones from full-scale trend reversals. If ETH holds above this threshold, it would reinforce the view that large holders still see long-term value—even as fear dominates broader market sentiment.
On the daily chart, Ethereum is attempting a recovery but faces significant overhead resistance. After rebounding from below $2,900, ETH has reclaimed the $3,200 level and is currently trading near $3,238. While this bounce reflects short-term strength, the broader trend remains fragile.
The price is encountering the 50-day moving average, which has acted as dynamic resistance throughout the decline from September’s peak. ETH briefly moved above it but failed to secure a strong close, indicating hesitation among buyers.
The 100-day and 200-day moving averages remain well above the current price, reinforcing that Ethereum is still trading below major trend indicators. These moving averages are likely to form a cluster of resistance between $3,400 and $3,600—an area where sellers have previously overwhelmed bullish attempts.
Structurally, ETH is forming a potential higher low but has not yet produced a higher high, which is essential for confirming a trend reversal. A clear breakout above $3,350 would strengthen bullish momentum.A drop below $3,150 could open the door for a decline toward $3,000 and a test of lower support levels.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Ethereum Trading Near Large Investor Cost Basis
Q1 What does it mean that Ethereum is trading near the average price large investors bought in
A It means the current market price of Ethereum is very close to the average price at which major institutional investors often called whales initially purchased their holdings This price level is seen as a key psychological and financial support zone
Q2 Why is this considered a critical historical test
A Since 2021 ETH has returned to this level only three times before Each time how the price reacted set the tone for the next major market trend Its a test of whether large investors will defend their position by buying more or capitulate by selling
Q3 Who are these large investors
A They are entities holding very large amounts of ETH such as institutional funds cryptonative investment firms venture capital and wealthy individuals Their collective average buyin price is a significant data point for market analysts
Q4 What usually happens when the price reaches this level
A Historically it has often acted as a strong support floor Large investors may see it as a discount and buy more providing buying pressure that can lead to a price rebound However if the price breaks decisively below this level it can trigger panic selling and a steeper decline
Q5 Is this a good buying opportunity for regular investors
A It can be but its not a guarantee Some investors view this as a potential value zone based on historical precedent However you should always do your own research consider your risk tolerance and never invest more than you can afford to lose as the price could still fall further
Q6 What happened the previous three times this occurred since 2021
A The outcomes were mixed In some instances it marked a major bottom before a strong rally In others it provided temporary support before a further decline The broader market context played a huge role in each outcome
Q7 Whats the difference between support and resistance in this context