According to market intelligence firm Santiment, Bitcoin is underperforming both gold and the S&P 500 following a sharp decline in November. Since early November, gold has risen 9%, the S&P 500 is up 1%, and Bitcoin has fallen about 20%, trading near $88,000 as of Wednesday. Reports indicate this gap has left the crypto market relatively quiet while other assets show modest recoveries.
Santiment’s data reveals a split in holder behavior. Smaller wallets were active buyers in the second half of 2025, while larger wallets mostly held steady and sold after pushing prices to an all-time high in October. Since large holders are often seen as market movers, their cautious stance has kept pressure on prices. Historically, a true trend shift is marked when large holders begin buying while retail investors pull back, but that signal isn’t clearly present yet.
On-chain data shows mixed signals. Long-term Bitcoin holders reduced their holdings from 14.8 million coins in mid-July to 14.3 million by December, but have since paused further selling. The number of active Bitcoin addresses rose 5.51% in the last 24 hours, yet transactions fell nearly 30% over the same period. This mismatch suggests more people are monitoring the market, but fewer are committing funds, indicating interest without a clear return to broad trading activity.
Market commentators are sharing their views. Garrett Jin, former head of the BitForex exchange, noted that traders are reallocating capital, as money naturally flows to where opportunities arise. He reiterated that capital remains the same and the strategy is always to sell high and buy low. Another analyst, CyrilXBT, described the current situation as late-cycle positioning before a potential rotation, suggesting that when liquidity shifts, gold could cool while Bitcoin leads and other tokens follow.
Technical analysts are divided. Javon Marks has highlighted parabolic patterns in Bitcoin’s chart similar to the 2016–2017 buildup and continues to predict a rally toward $125,000. Meanwhile, data from CoinCodex projects a more modest move first, forecasting BTC could reach $91,500 by January 30, 2026—a 3.68% rise from current levels. CoinCodex lists market sentiment as bearish, with a Fear & Greed Index reading of 23 (Extreme Fear). It also notes Bitcoin had 15 out of 30 positive days and 2.11% volatility over the past month, with data last updated December 31, 2025.
Short-term traders should watch for large wallets resuming bulk buying and for transaction counts to rise alongside active addresses. If whales begin accumulating again while long-term holders stop selling, that combination would provide a stronger signal than either metric alone. For now, reports point to stabilization rather than a confirmed reversal, leaving room for a potential catch-up move in 2026 if liquidity and sentiment improve.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Gold Stocks and Bitcoins Potential CatchUp by 2026
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 Whats the main idea behind the statement Bitcoin could catch up by 2026
It suggests that while traditional assets like gold and stocks have seen strong recent performance Bitcoins price might experience significant growth over the next few years potentially matching or exceeding their momentum by 2026
2 Why are gold and stocks considered safe compared to Bitcoin
Gold is a physical asset with a millennialong history as a store of value especially during economic uncertainty Stocks represent ownership in companies that produce goodsservices Both are more established and heavily regulated than Bitcoin which is a newer digital and more volatile asset
3 What does catch up mean in this context
It generally refers to Bitcoin achieving similar or superior percentage gains in its price or market valuation or gaining broader acceptance as a legitimate asset class alongside gold and stocks
4 Im new to investing Should I buy Bitcoin because of this prediction
Predictions are not guarantees Bitcoin is a highrisk highvolatility asset Its crucial to understand the risks only invest money you can afford to lose and consider it a small part of a diversified portfolio that may include stocks and other assets
Advanced Practical Questions
5 What specific factors could drive Bitcoin to catch up by 2026
Key drivers could include the approval of more Bitcoin spot ETFs the next Bitcoin halving event in 2024 further adoption by corporations or nations and a potential macro environment of lower interest rates
6 How do gold and stocks perform in different economic conditions than Bitcoin
Gold Stocks Gold often thrives during high inflation and geopolitical crises Stocks can struggle with high inflationinterest rates but grow with economic strength
Bitcoin Its behavior is still being defined It has acted as a riskon asset but some argue its fixed supply could make it a longterm hedge against currency debasement similar to gold
7 What are the biggest risks that could prevent Bitcoin from catching up
Major risks include stringent new government regulations a prolonged economic recession causing a flight to safety away from crypto technological