Over the past week, talk of a potential Bitcoin supercycle in 2026 grew louder after former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao added his predictions for the new year to the mix. However, a well-known analyst on X has offered a contrasting view, forecasting a deep price bottom for BTC this year.
BTC Price Could Face a 65% Drop
In a January 25th post on X, prominent crypto trader Ali Martinez remarked sarcastically that “the super cycle is super cycling.” Appearing to respond to the buzz around CZ’s supercycle projection, Martinez tempered expectations by predicting Bitcoin could bottom around $31,000 in 2026.
This bearish outlook is based on fractals—repeating patterns in price charts that can signal potential future movements. As shown in the chart above, BTC’s current price action resembles its pattern from 2022. Back then, after hitting what was then an all-time high near $67,000 in early 2021, Bitcoin corrected by nearly 55% to just above $30,000 by mid-July. Although it later recovered and set a new record above $69,000 by the end of 2021, BTC spent most of the following year in a downtrend, eventually bottoming around $15,500 amid the bearish events of 2022.
Martinez suggests Bitcoin is now following a similar path, having already declined over 32% before rallying to its current all-time high of $126,080. He believes the cryptocurrency is currently in the extended decline phase, similar to 2022, but this time with a potential bottom near $31,800—a drop of nearly 65% from current levels. If these historical patterns hold, Bitcoin may be more likely to enter an extended downtrend than a supercycle.
Bitcoin Price Snapshot
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading around $88,528, down just over 1% in the past 24 hours.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin Supercycle Price Predictions
Beginner Questions
1 What is a Bitcoin supercycle
A Bitcoin supercycle is a theory that suggests Bitcoin could experience an exceptionally long and powerful bull market potentially driven by massive institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors without the typical deep bear market corrections seen in past cycles
2 Who is predicting a drop to 31000 by 2026
This is a specific prediction from one analyst Its important to remember this is just one opinion among many in the crypto market which is known for having wildly different forecasts
3 Why would the price drop before a big rally
This pattern of a significant price drop followed by a major rally is common in Bitcoins history Analysts often cite reasons like profittaking after a runup negative macroeconomic news or a period of consolidation to shake out weaker investors before the next upward move
4 Is this prediction a guarantee
No Absolutely not All price predictions especially for volatile assets like Bitcoin are speculative forecasts not guarantees They are based on models and interpretations of past data which may not repeat
Advanced Practical Questions
5 What factors could drive a potential supercycle
Key factors often cited include widespread adoption by ETFs and traditional finance regulatory clarity Bitcoins fixed supply acting as a hedge against inflation and potential global economic instability driving demand for decentralized assets
6 Whats the difference between a regular bull market and a supercycle
A regular bull market is a sustained price increase typically followed by a bear market where prices fall significantly A supercycle theory suggests the bull phase could be much longer and the subsequent downturn less severe as Bitcoin becomes a more mature mainstream asset class
7 If the analyst is right what should I do
This depends entirely on your personal strategy Some might see a predicted drop to 31000 as a future buying opportunity Others might use such predictions to inform their risk management like setting stoploss orders Never invest based solely on one prediction
8 What are the biggest risks to the supercycle theory
Major risks include a prolonged global economic recession reducing risk appetite unexpected harsh regulatory crackdowns in key markets