After reaching a new all-time high in early October, Bitcoin entered a prolonged downtrend, shedding more than $40,000 in value to fall below $90,000. During this period, market sentiment and participation have naturally been low, with many investors stepping back from crypto. However, as the year approaches its end, a crypto analyst has shared what may lie ahead for Bitcoin, suggesting that investors are unprepared for what’s coming.
Why Bitcoin Could Be Preparing for a Major Move
The pseudonymous analyst Crypto Waterman took to X to outline why Bitcoin might be on the brink of a breakout. While many believe the market has peaked, Waterman argues the opposite, pointing to trends from previous cycles to show that Bitcoin likely hasn’t reached its top yet.
For one, the analyst notes that pullbacks like this are typical in every cycle, and past cycles were no exception. Beyond the pullback, Waterman highlights the trend in gold and silver, both of which hit all-time highs in December 2025 while Bitcoin continued to struggle. Historically, gold and silver have reached new peaks before Bitcoin followed suit. Given that both metals have already achieved new highs, the analyst believes shifting from Bitcoin to gold or silver now may not be wise.
Another key indicator of a Bitcoin cycle top has been the ranking of the Coinbase app on the App Store. In past cycles, Coinbase rose to the number one spot before Bitcoin peaked. In contrast, it only reached number 280 in October when Bitcoin hit its $126,000 all-time high, suggesting the top may still be ahead.
Why This Isn’t the Top
Other factors also indicate that Bitcoin hasn’t peaked. Altcoins, for instance, have continued to struggle, with major ones down 60% to 80% from their all-time highs and no sign of an altcoin season on the horizon.
Additionally, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index did not surpass 90 this cycle, indicating that market euphoria never reached extreme levels. The MVRV Z-Score also remained below 3, whereas it typically rises above 6 before a market top.
Based on these signals, the analyst anticipates a sequence of events: investors who left the market in early 2025 are expected to return first, followed by those who exited in 2024, and then the cohort from 2021–2022. Finally, a wave of new retail investors will enter the market, which could serve as a signal to exit.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoins Next Phase Analyst Warnings
Beginner Questions
What does Bitcoins next phase mean
It refers to the next major stage in Bitcoins evolution which analysts believe could involve wider institutional adoption new regulations significant price volatility or technological upgrades that most everyday investors arent anticipating
Why arent people prepared for it
According to the analyst many people still view Bitcoin as just a speculative asset or a quick investment They may not understand the larger shifts coming like its integration into traditional finance which requires a different longterm strategy
Is Bitcoin still a good investment
Bitcoin remains a highrisk highvolatility asset Its suitability depends on your financial goals risk tolerance and time horizon Analysts stress the importance of education and not investing more than you can afford to lose especially before a new phase
Whats the simplest thing I can do to prepare
Focus on education Learn the basics of how Bitcoin and blockchain work understand wallet security and avoid making impulsive decisions based on price hype or fear
Intermediate Strategic Questions
What specific changes does this analyst expect
While specifics vary common expectations include increased involvement from major financial institutions clearer government regulations the rise of Bitcoinbased financial products and potentially heightened market volatility as these forces collide
How could regulation impact Bitcoin
Regulation could bring more stability and legitimacy attracting larger investors However overly restrictive rules in key countries could also temporarily suppress price or limit how people can use it The markets reaction is unpredictable
Should I move my Bitcoin off exchanges
Many analysts advise using selfcustody for longterm holdings especially in uncertain times This gives you full control and reduces risk if an exchange faces issues Keep a small amount on exchanges only for active trading
What are common mistakes people make during big market shifts
Common mistakes include panic selling during dips FOMO buying at peaks neglecting security and not having a clear exit or takeprofit strategy Emotional trading is often the biggest pitfall
Advanced Technical Questions
Could this next phase involve a major Bitcoin protocol upgrade
Possibly While not always the focus of such analysis phases can coincide with upgrades like Tap