A warning signal is flashing on the charts, with analysts predicting Bitcoin could be headed for another sharp decline. Technical analysis suggests that if BTC fails to sustain its current uptrend, it might repeat a bear-market crash similar to past cycles, potentially leading to a double-digit percentage drop.
Could Bitcoin Repeat Its 2022 Crash?
Analyst Tyrex warns that Bitcoin may be nearing a critical turning point if the current uptrend breaks. In a recent analysis, he compares the present market structure to April 2022, when Bitcoin hit an all-time high (ATH) before crashing hard over the following weeks.
Tyrex notes that in 2022, Bitcoin fell roughly 45% from its ATH before entering a nearly four-month consolidation phase. During that period, prices moved within clear horizontal boundaries, creating an illusion of stability while underlying weakness was building.
That consolidation ended with an upside fakeout—a brief break above resistance followed by a sharp reversal. The rejection triggered a continuation of the broader downtrend, leading to another aggressive crash that erased remaining bullish confidence.
According to Tyrex, Bitcoin’s current chart closely mirrors that 2022 setup. After reaching an ATH above $126,000, BTC has pulled back sharply and spent about two months consolidating within a defined range, repeatedly stalling at resistance.
Tyrex cautions that Bitcoin is barely holding above $95,000, which aligns with a key resistance zone. If the price fails to recover and continues to stall here, the recent move higher could prove to be another fakeout, potentially leading to a sharp drop—just like in 2022. The analyst projects that a breakdown could trigger an 11.04% fall to the $86,000–$84,000 range.
Forecast Points to March ATH, May Flash Crash
Another outlook, from analyst CryptoXLarge, sketches a possible path for Bitcoin over the next four months based on historical cycle behavior.
The forecast suggests January 2026 could see quiet accumulation with controlled price action and low volatility. February might then bring a powerful rally as momentum builds, pushing BTC higher and setting the stage for a new all-time high around $240,000 in March.
Following that projected peak, April could become a bull trap—where prices appear strong but fail to sustain upward momentum. The outlook concludes with a warning of a potential flash crash in May 2026, which could pull prices down to fresh lows.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Analyst Predicts How Low Bitcoin Could Fall If the Rally Stalls
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does it mean when an analyst says a rally stalls
A rally is a period of rising prices When it stalls it means the rapid price increase slows down or stops often leading to a period of sideways movement or a potential drop as buying momentum fades
2 Why do analysts try to predict how low Bitcoin could go
Analysts use historical data chart patterns and market indicators to identify potential support levelsprices where buying interest might increase and halt a decline These predictions help investors manage risk and set expectations
3 What are common reasons a Bitcoin rally might stall
Common reasons include profittaking by investors after a big runup negative news a drop in overall market sentiment or a slowdown in new money entering the market
4 Should I panic and sell if I hear this prediction
No predictions are not certainties They are educated guesses about potential scenarios Its more important to have a longterm strategy and not make impulsive decisions based on a single analysts view
Advanced Practical Questions
5 What tools or indicators do analysts use to set these downside targets
Analysts often look at
Technical Support Levels Previous price points where Bitcoin has bounced back up
Moving Averages Key averages that often act as support
Fibonacci Retracement Levels Mathematical levels that measure potential pullbacks within a trend
OnChain Data Metrics like exchange flows or the cost basis of large holders
6 Whats the difference between a normal pullback and a deeper crash
A pullback is a common healthy correction within a longerterm uptrend A crash or bear market is a more severe sustained decline that breaks key longterm support and can change the overall market structure
7 If the rally stalls are there any signs to watch for that suggest a deeper fall is coming
Yes key warning signs include