A modest claim and a bold number are both in focus for Bitcoin this week, as the debate over how to interpret short-term price trends intensifies.
Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson has noted that half of the last 24 months saw positive returns. From this, he reportedly calculated an almost 90% probability that Bitcoin will be higher ten months from now. This jump from a simple tally to a specific probability is what captures attention, and it naturally invites questions about how these odds were determined and what assumptions underpin the model.
Counting Positive Months
Peterson’s outlook is based on a review of monthly performance. Data from CoinGlass indicates Bitcoin closed six months of 2025 with gains and six with losses, meaning 50% of the past 24 months were positive. Peterson says he monitors this rolling two-year window to identify potential shifts in price trends.
Market Odds Tell a Different Story
Betting markets present a contrasting view. On Polymarket, December is currently given only a 17% chance of being 2026’s best month, with November slightly higher. These figures address a different question than Peterson’s—they reflect bets on which month will outperform others, not simply whether the price will be higher at a future date. While blunt, betting markets consolidate the collective outlook of many traders into a single number.
Bitcoin Price Action
The price has been volatile. Bitcoin traded between roughly $67,000 and $68,000 this week amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Safe-haven assets like gold and oil rallied on the news, and Bitcoin faced pressure as some buyers retreated. Current prices remain about 20% below the year’s start, a reminder that headline percentages can mask significant intraday swings.
Analysts Are Divided
Market voices are split. Analyst Michael van de Poppe has suggested near-term gains could be ahead, advising traders to watch for an upward move. Conversely, Peter Brandt has argued a deeper low may not arrive until late 2026. These views rely on different signals—one focused on momentum and chart patterns, the other on longer cycle trends and macroeconomic risks.
Sentiment Remains Low
Peterson’s forecast comes as overall crypto market sentiment continues to weaken, with reports noting decreased discussion and activity around Bitcoin predictions. Traders seem cautious, balancing historical trends against current market uncertainties.
Flow data from spot ETF purchases, derivatives positioning, and on-chain liquidity would provide further context for any forecast.
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoins TwoYear Cycle
BeginnerLevel Questions
What is this twoyear pattern people talk about with Bitcoin
Its an observed trend where Bitcoins price has historically shown about 12 months of significant gains within every 24month period often followed by a period of consolidation or decline
Is this pattern a guaranteed rule
No its not a guarantee Its a historical observation based on past market cycles not a law of finance Past performance never guarantees future results
Why does this pattern seem to happen
Its often linked to Bitcoins halving event which cuts the reward for mining new bitcoins in half roughly every four years This reduces new supply and combined with investor psychology and adoption cycles has contributed to these boomandconsolidation periods
As a beginner should I invest based solely on this pattern
Absolutely not This is just one piece of historical context You should only invest what you can afford to lose do your own research and understand Bitcoins extreme volatility
What does 12 months of gains actually look like
It doesnt mean the price goes up every single day for a year It refers to a broader bullish trend where the overall price movement over that period is significantly upward even with regular dips and corrections along the way
Intermediate MarketRelated Questions
When do the gain periods typically start
Historically major bullish runs have often begun roughly 1218 months after a Bitcoin halving event However timing the market based on this is extremely difficult
What happens during the other 12 months of the cycle
This period is often marked by a bear market a prolonged downturn or a sideways consolidation phase where the price trades within a range without making major new highs
Does this mean Bitcoin is only a good investment every other year
Not necessarily The off periods can be times for accumulation for longterm investors and the cycle describes a macro trendnot shortterm trading advice Many investors use a longterm hold strategy regardless of the cycle phase
How has this pattern held up recently
The pattern was evident in the 20162017 bull run the 20182019 bear market the 20202021 bull run and