According to a January 8 video analysis by crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev Capital TA), the Bitcoin hash ribbons indicator has flipped back to a buy signal on the weekly chart. He emphasized the importance of this setup, noting that historically, this model has been associated with higher prices following corrective periods, even if its track record is no longer perfect.
In the video, Kevin reviewed the weekly Bitcoin chart with the hash ribbons overlay, describing it as one of the more reliable signals in crypto technical analysis. “There have been 19 buy signals on the weekly timeframe throughout Bitcoin’s entire history, with an 84% success rate,” he stated, adding that such consistency is rare for any single indicator.
Hash ribbons aim to gauge miner stress and recovery by comparing short-term and long-term moving averages of the network’s hash rate. Kevin framed it not just as a simple buy/sell tool, but as a proxy for overall network health, where miner behavior can signal upcoming shifts in market structure. “It’s not just a buy and sell indicator. It’s tracking mining hash rate,” he explained. “That essentially means it’s tracking the overall power and health of the Bitcoin network.”
He detailed the mechanics, which focus on the 30-day moving average of the hash rate (shown as a green line on his chart) versus the 60-day moving average (a gray line). When the 30-day average crosses below the 60-day, it signals a capitulation phase, aligning with bearish price action and a weaker network. When the 30-day average crosses back above the 60-day, the indicator generates a buy signal (shown as blue dots), which he interprets as miners rebounding after less efficient operators have been forced out.
The immediate reason for his update was a new signal sequence around the end of December. Kevin noted that the hash ribbons showed capitulation in the second-to-last week of December, followed by a buy signal in the final week. He also observed that the indicator was again flashing a capitulation signal during the current week, which, if not yet confirmed, could set up another buy signal if the moving averages continue to interact and then turn upward.
Kevin also addressed the model’s recent performance. While citing the 84% historical success rate for weekly buy signals, he pointed out that earlier in the current cycle, the indicator generated two buy signals—in May and July—that did not lead to the significant price moves seen in previous successful instances. “We did go up from the original buy signal, but it really wasn’t a lot,” he said, contrasting this with past episodes that “typically produce a 30 to 100% move.” These weaker outcomes, in his view, ended what was once considered a “100% hit rate.”
Nevertheless, Kevin argues the current context is different because the latest signal follows a price decline. He referenced a 36% drop in Bitcoin during the recent correction and suggested that early signs of miner recovery—reflected in the moving averages stabilizing and attempting to rise—are the conditions where the indicator has historically performed best. However, he cautioned that timing can vary, noting that the setup can take “two to three weeks” to fully play out.The process is expected to take “four to six weeks” to fully unfold, though it could happen sooner. At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $91,009. The article includes a featured image created with DALL·E and a chart from TradingView.com.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin Indicator with an 84 Success Rate
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What is this indicator that people are talking about
An indicator is a mathematical calculation based on Bitcoins price trading volume or other market data Traders use them to analyze trends and try to predict future price movements This specific one has a historical track record of being correct 84 of the time when it gives a signal
2 What does an 84 success rate actually mean
It means that in the past when this specific indicator flashed a similar buy or bullish signal the price of Bitcoin increased about 84 out of every 100 times However past performance does not guarantee future results
3 Does this signal guarantee the price will go up
No it does not guarantee anything While an 84 rate is historically strong there is still a 16 chance the signal could be wrong this time The crypto market is influenced by many unpredictable factors like news regulations and global events
4 As a beginner should I invest because of this signal
You should never invest based solely on one indicator This signal could be a useful piece of information but its crucial to do your own research understand the risks of cryptocurrency investing and never invest money you cant afford to lose Consider it a data point not a command
5 Where can I see this indicator for myself
Many technical analysis platforms and charting websites offer hundreds of indicators You would need to know the specific name of this indicator to find and plot it on a chart
Advanced Practical Questions
6 What is the likely name or type of indicator with such a high success rate
While the exact indicator isnt named here indicators with very high historical win rates are often momentum oscillators at extreme levels or specific onchain metrics signaling undervaluation It could also be a composite model combining several data points
7 What are the biggest risks of relying on this signal
The main risks are