Last week, traders cashed out nearly $1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin in a single day, suggesting the recent recovery may be losing momentum. On May 4, investors sold 14,600 Bitcoin, pushing daily realized profits to their highest level since early December. According to CryptoQuant, this kind of selling spike during a bear market rally has historically signaled a local price peak.
### A Rally Under Pressure
Bitcoin rose about 37% over six weeks, climbing from $66,000 in early April to briefly hit $82,380. That level matches the cryptocurrency’s 200-day moving average—a technical marker that acted as a barrier during the 2022 bear market. Back then, Bitcoin hit that same average in March before sliding further into a prolonged decline.
CryptoQuant’s latest research draws a direct comparison between that period and today’s situation. Unrealized profits among traders also surged during the recent rally. On May 5, profit margins reached over 17%, the highest since June of last year. Data shows this mirrors conditions last seen in March 2022, just before Bitcoin resumed its fall. The combination of profit-taking and a historically significant resistance level has led CryptoQuant to warn of a possible trend reversal.
### Inflation Data Adds to the Pressure
Outside the crypto market, broader economic signals are adding to the uncertainty. The US Labor Department reported that producer prices rose 1.4% in April, the steepest increase in four years. Bitcoin has become more sensitive to US economic data as Wall Street adoption has grown, and the inflation report pushed the price down 2.3% in 24 hours to around $79,250.
If selling pressure pushes Bitcoin lower, CryptoQuant sees the next major support level around $70,000. That level reflects the average price at which all Bitcoin was last transacted and has historically shifted from resistance to support during bear markets. At that point, short-term traders would have little unrealized profit left, removing much of the incentive to sell.
### Bulls Still See a Different Path
Not everyone reads the charts the same way. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin could make a fast move to $90,000 if the US Senate advances the CLARITY Act, a long-awaited piece of crypto legislation.
A return to Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 is seen as almost inevitable, according to Maelstrom investment chief Arthur Hayes. He pointed to money printing pressures linked to the Iran conflict and the escalating US-China race in artificial intelligence as key catalysts.
Both views reflect the sharp divide among market watchers as Bitcoin sits at a critical juncture.
Featured image from Mint, chart from TradingView
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about Bitcoins recent 37 recovery running into strong bearish resistance
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does it mean that Bitcoin has recovered 37
It means the price of Bitcoin went up by 37 from its recent low point For example if it dropped to 25000 a 37 recovery would bring it to roughly 34250
2 What is bearish resistance
Bearish resistance is a price level where sellers step in aggressively to stop the price from going higher Its like a ceiling that the price struggles to break through
3 Is a 37 recovery a good sign or a bad sign
Its a mixed sign A 37 bounce shows strong buying interest but hitting strong resistance means the rally is stalling It could mean the price will drop again or take a long time to push higher
4 Should I buy Bitcoin now because of this recovery
Not necessarily A recovery into resistance is a risky time to buy Its often better to wait and see if the price breaks above the resistance or pulls back to a lower safer entry point
5 What happens if Bitcoin cant break through this resistance
If it fails the price will likely drop back down This is called a rejection The drop could be significant possibly wiping out most of the 37 gain
AdvancedLevel Questions
6 What specific indicators show that the resistance is strong
Traders look for high trading volume at the resistance level a double top pattern or a bearish divergence on the RSI where price makes a new high but momentum weakens
7 Could this resistance turn into support later
Yes If Bitcoin eventually breaks through this resistance that same price level often becomes a support floor Traders watch for a retest of the level after a breakout to confirm the shift
8 How does the 37 recovery relate to the 200week moving average
Often a 37 recovery starts from major support like the 200week moving average If the current resistance aligns with a lower high