Bitcoin has been steadily declining, with its price dropping below $60,000 over the past week. The leading cryptocurrency has struggled to keep up its upward momentum after facing multiple rejections at the $82,000 level over the last month. Meanwhile, analysts are split between the possibility of a recovery and the risk of another prolonged downturn. Market expert Leshka.eth, who goes by the X username Leshka.eth, sides with the pessimists, sharing a recent analysis that predicts a 41% drop in Bitcoin’s price.
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26 EMA Rejection Confirms Growing Selling Pressure
In an X post on May 22, Leshka.eth shared a bearish price forecast for Bitcoin, based on the formation of a Head & Shoulders pattern. This is a negative chart pattern that signals a potential trend reversal, usually from bullish to bearish. It features three peaks, with the middle peak (the head) higher than the two surrounding peaks (the shoulders). A neckline drawn across the lows between these peaks acts as a key support level.
According to Leshka.eth, the forming H&S pattern on Bitcoin’s weekly chart suggests an upcoming reversal of the price gains made throughout 2024 and 2025. The analyst notes that the pattern has shown two key developments. First, the price retested the $68,000 neckline, indicating that the market is considering this area as a key point for further downward pressure. Second, Bitcoin’s price bounced but was firmly rejected at the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA), showing that upward momentum is weakening at this dynamic level and adding to the bearish outlook implied by the pattern.
Additionally, the right shoulder failed to reach the same height as the left shoulder, suggesting a gradual buildup of selling pressure. All these signs point to an upcoming confirmation of the H&S formation, which is expected to trigger a major drop. In this case, Leshka.eth predicts Bitcoin could fall to around $44,000 in a measured move, aligning with the next significant support level below the neckline. While the analyst didn’t say so explicitly, such a price move could mark the expected cycle bottom needed to kickstart the next market bull run.
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Bitcoin Price Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $75,484, down 2.66% over the past day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume has risen 2.65% to $27.65 billion.
Featured image from HeroScreen, chart from Tradingview
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about the Bitcoin headandshoulders pattern and its potential implications
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What is a head and shoulders pattern
Its a chart pattern that looks like a peak a higher peak and another lower peak It often signals that a price trend is about to reverse from going up to going down
2 Does this mean Bitcoin is definitely going to crash to 44000
No A pattern is just a warning sign not a guarantee It means the price is at a higher risk of falling but it could also fail and go back up Think of it like a yellow traffic lightslow down and be careful but you might still get the green light
3 What is the target of 44000
The target is a rough estimate of where the price could drop if the pattern completes Its calculated by measuring the distance from the head to the neckline and subtracting that from the neckline Its a guide not a precise prediction
4 Why should I care about this pattern if I just buy and hold Bitcoin
If youre a longterm holder shortterm patterns matter less However a big drop to 44000 could be a buying opportunity or a reason to wait before adding more money It helps you understand the current risk
5 How do I spot a headandshoulders pattern on a chart
Look for three peaks the middle one is the highest and the two on the sides are roughly equal and lower The neckline is a support level connecting the low points between the peaks If the price breaks below that neckline the pattern is confirmed
Intermediate Advanced Questions
6 What is the neckline and why is it so important
The neckline is a horizontal or slightly slanted line drawn under the two troughs between the three peaks It acts as a support level The pattern is only considered active if the price breaks and stays below this line A break above the neckline invalidates the pattern