Bitcoin resumed its strong start to the year this week, climbing above $97,000 for the first time since November 2025. The move has reignited discussions about the market’s current phase as Bitcoin attempts to reclaim a six-figure valuation. After breaking past the significant $94,000 technical level, Bitcoin appeared poised to challenge $100,000 again. However, recent on-chain analysis is drawing attention to a trend among a specific group of investors.
Bitcoin Price May Depend on Short-Term Holder Behavior
In a January 16 post on X, pseudonymous crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted that the average realized price for Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs)—investors who have held their coins for 1 to 3 months—is a key level to watch. According to the data, this STH realized price currently sits near $102,000, meaning most recent buyers are currently at a loss. Darkfost adjusted this analysis to account for 800,000 BTC recently moved by Coinbase.
As Bitcoin’s price approaches this level, short-term holders face a choice: hold for further gains or sell to break even. Being a reactive group, they have recently shown a tendency to take short-term profits, as seen in recent exchange inflows. Darkfost suggests that once this profit-taking subsides, the STH realized price will become a crucial indicator. Historically, Bitcoin trading below this cost basis has presented a good accumulation opportunity, though the analyst cautions that this pattern may not hold during prolonged bear markets when short-term holders often face extended losses.
STH Cost Basis Seen as Key for Renewed Momentum
Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish agrees that the STH average realized price is a critical inflection point. He notes that for Bitcoin’s bullish momentum to re-accelerate, the price must reclaim this level, signaling that recent buyers are back in profit. Failure to do so would likely keep the market in recovery mode.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading around $95,300, showing little change over the past 24 hours.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin Price Could Hit 100K Why ShortTerm Holders Are Key
BeginnerLevel Questions
What does shortterm holders mean
Shortterm holders are investors who have held their Bitcoin for 155 days or less Their behavior is often driven by recent price movements and market sentiment making them more likely to buy or sell quickly
Why is the 100000 price target for Bitcoin being discussed
Analysts and market observers point to factors like increased institutional adoption the upcoming Bitcoin halving and historical price cycles as reasons Bitcoin could reach this milestone The activity of shortterm holders is seen as a key catalyst to get there
How do shortterm holders affect Bitcoins price
Shortterm holders can create significant price volatility When they buy in large numbers it can drive the price up rapidly Conversely if many sell at once it can cause sharp price drops Their collective actions are crucial for building momentum toward new highs
Is investing in Bitcoin safe if Im a beginner
Bitcoin is a highly volatile and speculative asset not safe like a savings account Only invest money you are prepared to lose Its essential to do your own research understand the risks and consider starting with a very small amount
Whats a practical first step if Im interested
First educate yourself using reputable sources Then you can sign up with a wellknown regulated cryptocurrency exchange to purchase a small amount always using secure practices like twofactor authentication and a personal wallet for larger holdings
Advanced Market Dynamics Questions
Why are shortterm holders specifically key to hitting 100K
Market data shows that price rallies to new alltime highs are often fueled by coins being bought from longterm confident holders and sold to new shortterm holders This transfer indicates fresh capital and bullish sentiment entering the market which is necessary to sustain a push to a level like 100000
What is the Realized Price for shortterm holders and why does it matter
The Realized Price for STHs is the average acquisition price of all coins held for less than 155 days It acts as a major support level As long as the market price stays above this level most STHs are in profit reducing sell pressure and