As investors face a landscape of increased uncertainty, Bitcoin is trading nearly 20% below its all-time highs. Yet, some analysts see similarities between its current performance and the strong rally of 2023.
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), analysts from The Bull Theory noted that Bitcoin has once again closed a weekly candle above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a key indicator that has supported every major uptrend over the past two and a half years.
This EMA level has been tested several times, including in August 2024 and April 2025, when Bitcoin briefly fell below it before reclaiming it and starting a new upward trend. A similar pattern may be forming now.
The analysts also highlighted that Bitcoin remains within a multi-year support zone on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). While momentum has slowed, there are no signs of an imminent breakdown. In the current cycle, whenever the RSI reached this level, it marked the end of a correction and the start of a new expansion phase.
Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is resetting near its historical reversal zone, which previously sparked rallies in early 2023, late 2024, and again in the second quarter of 2025. This suggests that selling pressure may be easing rather than signaling a new downtrend.
From a structural perspective, the recent correction appears to be over. Bitcoin has fallen nearly 20% from its peak of $126,000, matching the average size of corrections seen in each impulsive wave since the cycle began.
Combining the reclaimed EMA, RSI support, and MACD reversal signals, the current setup resembles those that preceded major breakouts since 2023. This implies the market is not heading for a breakdown but is instead undergoing a necessary reset.
Bitcoin might trade sideways for a few weeks as it stabilizes above the EMA, similar to what happened after the April 2025 correction. This consolidation could pave the way for the next expansion phase.
Looking forward, analysts suggest this could mark the fifth wave of the current market structure, with potential price targets between $160,000 and $180,000 by the first quarter of 2026. Technically, all indicators point to continuation rather than a collapse.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $106,520, up nearly 2% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the potential Bitcoin rally designed to be clear and helpful for all levels of interest
Beginner General Questions
1 What does a Bitcoin rally mean
A Bitcoin rally is a period when the price of Bitcoin increases significantly over a relatively short time
2 Why are experts predicting a rally to 180000
This prediction is often based on historical patterns specifically the halving event which reduces the supply of new Bitcoin combined with increasing demand from new investment products like Bitcoin ETFs
3 What is the Bitcoin halving
The halving is a preprogrammed event that happens approximately every four years where the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is cut in half This slows down the creation of new Bitcoin which can push the price up if demand stays the same or increases
4 Is it too late to buy Bitcoin now
No one can say for sure While the price has already increased from its lowest point many analysts believe the potential rally is still in its early stages based on past cycles However its always a risk
5 Where is the safest place to buy and store Bitcoin
The safest method is to buy on a reputable regulated exchange and then transfer your Bitcoin to your own private hardware wallet for longterm storage
Intermediate MarketBased Questions
6 What are indicators suggesting a rally
Key indicators include the StocktoFlow model a surge in new Bitcoin ETF inflows and onchain data showing longterm holders are not selling which reduces available supply
7 How does the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs help the price
ETFs make it easy for regular investors and large institutions to buy Bitcoin through their traditional stock brokerage accounts bringing a massive wave of new capital into the market
8 What could prevent Bitcoin from reaching 180000
Several factors could hinder this including new strict government regulations a major global economic recession a critical security flaw being discovered in Bitcoins code or a prolonged drop in overall market demand
9 Has Bitcoin seen rallies like this before
Yes After each of the three previous halvings in