Friday’s selloff pushed XRP further into the red, completing a 22% drop over the past 30 days and sending the token below $1.10 for the first time since November 2024. For many, this raises the most pressing question right now: could the altcoin hit $1 again soon, or is a fall below that level now likely?
Could XRP Drop 40% Toward $0.70?
In a new report, market expert Sam Daodu points out that the broader technical picture is now fully bearish across multiple timeframes. He notes that XRP is trading below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages (MAs)—a setup that typically signals sellers are in control, no matter which chart window you look at. Daodu says there isn’t much support once XRP trades at $1.09. Around $1.05, buyers have tended to step in, and then $1 is the next major psychological level where demand often appears simply because it’s a round number.
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Even more concerning, some chart analysts he references in the report believe the cryptocurrency could drop another 40% from current levels if the risk-off trend continues, which would put the token around $0.70. Yet on-chain data tells a different story.
Monthly RSI Hits Rare Oversold Reset
The number of XRP wallets holding at least 10,000 tokens hit a record 332,230 in May, and that group has continued to grow through each downturn in 2026. Meanwhile, wallets holding 1 million or more XRP added a net 42 new addresses since January—the first increase in millionaire wallets since September 2025.
Whale behavior also appears to be tightening around supply. Whales holding 10 million or more XRP control 45.83 billion tokens, representing 68.5% of the circulating supply—the highest concentration since May 2018.
In addition, whale outflow dominance on Binance recently reached 91.4%, the highest reading since 2024. Daodu notes that the last time Binance outflow dominance hit similar levels—in October 2024—XRP later rallied from about $0.50 to above $3 in the months that followed.
There’s also a longer-cycle technical signal that Daodu says doesn’t appear often. XRP’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen into the oversold reset zone for only the fourth time in 13 years. Each of the earlier RSI resets eventually led to a major reversal in XRP’s direction, and Daodu says the fourth occurrence is now forming with XRP sitting around $1.09.
Two Hope Beacons In The Downtrend
While whales and long-cycle chart signals may support the idea of a future rebound, the near-term catalyst for many is policy. Daodu points to the CLARITY Act floor vote as a potential turning point for XRP’s outlook for the rest of the year.
The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 and was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1. That puts it at the fifth stage out of nine needed before it can become law, with the full Senate floor vote identified as the next major step. If the CLARITY Act passes and the macro environment stabilizes, Standard Chartered forecasts XRP could reach $2.80, with a bullish range stretching as high as $8.
But if the bill stalls before recess and slips into a later timeline—such as 2030 or beyond—the bank’s outlook suggests prices could retreat toward $0.53.
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On whether the altcoin will drop below $1, Daodu’s view is more conditional than definitive. He suggests the altcoin could likely test $1 before this leg of the sell-off ends, and whether that level breaks depends on two key factors.
The first is whether Bitcoin (BTC) can reclaim and consolidate above $60,000. Daodu says if BTC slides into the $55,000 zone, XRP would likely follow regardless of its own fundamentals.
The second factor is whether the CLARITY Act receives a Senate floor vote before the August recess. If that vote happens and theIf the bill passes, the upside could become appealing enough for institutional investors to jump back in—possibly sparking a rally from whatever low XRP hits during the downturn. Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the topic Could XRP drop to 070 next Heres why it might fall another 40
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does it mean if XRP drops to 070
It means the price of one XRP coin would fall from its current level to just 70 cents Thats a significant loss of valueabout 40 less
2 Why would XRP drop another 40
Analysts point to a few reasons a general downturn in the crypto market legal uncertainty around the SEC vs Ripple case or technical chart patterns that suggest the price is heading lower If sellers keep outnumbering buyers the price can fall sharply
3 Is 070 a realistic target for XRP
Its possible but not guaranteed Some traders look at past support levels and see 070 as a key area where the price might stop falling However crypto is very volatile so it could also bounce back or go even lower
4 Should I sell my XRP if it might drop to 070
That depends on your risk tolerance If youre worried about shortterm losses selling now could protect you But if you believe in XRPs longterm potential a 40 drop might be a buying opportunity Never invest more than you can afford to lose
5 What causes a cryptocurrency like XRP to drop so much
Several factors bad news a marketwide crash large investors selling off their holdings or technical signals that traders act on Fear and panic selling often accelerate the drop
AdvancedLevel Questions
6 What technical indicators suggest XRP could fall to 070
Traders often look at the Relative Strength Index showing oversold conditions a breakdown below key moving averages or a head and shoulders pattern If XRP breaks below its current support level the next major support is often around 070
7 How does the SEC lawsuit affect XRPs price prediction
The SECs case against Ripple the company