Bitcoin’s prolonged retreat from its all-time high has left traders uncertain, with many unsure if the worst of the decline is over. Analyst Jelle on X suggests the market may be overlooking an uncomfortable truth: Bitcoin bear markets often become far more painful than most anticipate. He argues that price data supports a more concerning outlook for the current pullback.
Current Decline Still Milder Than Past Bear Markets
Jelle warns investors who might be underestimating the severity of Bitcoin’s bear markets. He notes that Bitcoin is currently down about 44% from its all-time high of $126,080, with a local bottom near $63,000 in February marking a 53% drop from the peak. While these declines sound significant, they are relatively modest compared to history.
Previous bear markets have been much deeper. The downturn after the 2017 rally erased roughly 84% of Bitcoin’s value, and the bear market following the 2021 cycle saw a decline of nearly 77%.
A chart shared by Jelle shows a consistent cyclical pattern since 2014, with Bitcoin moving through extended periods of accumulation and decline. Each bull run has lasted about 150 to 152 weeks, followed by bear markets lasting 52 to 58 weeks. By this measure, the current bear phase has not yet reached the typical duration of past cycles. If projected from the October 2025 all-time high, this correction could last until around October 2026.
“Unfortunately, I think there is more pain ahead for BTC,” Jelle stated.
The RSI Suggests Caution
Jelle also analyzed Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has historically signaled when bear markets are nearing an end. He observed that in past cycles, the weekly RSI fell below the 37 level before the market bottomed. Once it crosses below that threshold, it often declines further before Bitcoin price finds its final low.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin has fallen about 30% since the RSI first dropped below that level. This decline is smaller than in previous cycles, though not enough to be a clear outlier given the limited historical data.
More importantly, Jelle highlights a pattern that typically forms near the end of a bear market. The final low usually occurs when the RSI forms a higher low compared to its previous bottom, even if the price itself sets a lower low. This creates a bullish divergence on the weekly chart, a signal that has always preceded the shift from a bear market into a new accumulation phase.
Until this pattern emerges, patience remains the best strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions Bitcoin Market Analysis
Beginner Questions
Q What does Bitcoin crash actually mean
A A crash refers to a rapid and significant drop in Bitcoins price over a short period typically 20 or more from recent highs often causing panic selling
Q What is a bear market
A A bear market is a prolonged period where prices decline by 20 or more from recent peaks generally accompanied by widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment
Q How do I know if were in a bear market
A Analysts typically confirm a bear market after a sustained price drop of 20 from the peak often lasting several months with lower highs and lower lows on the price chart
Q Are Bitcoin crashes normal
A Yes Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset Sharp corrections and cyclical bear markets have been a regular part of its history since its creation
Q Should I sell my Bitcoin if it crashes
A This is a personal financial decision Many longterm investors choose to hold through volatility while others may sell to cut losses It depends on your risk tolerance and investment goals
Intermediate Market Analysis Questions
Q What causes a Bitcoin bear market
A Common triggers include macroeconomic factors regulatory crackdowns major exchange failures largescale liquidations in leveraged trading or a shift from greed to fear in market sentiment
Q How severe can Bitcoin bear markets get
A Historically very severe Past bear markets have seen drawdowns of over 80 from the alltime high For example after the 2017 peak near 20k Bitcoin fell to around 3200 in late 2018an 84 decline
Q What are the signs that a bear market might be ending
A Analysts look for signs like price stabilizing and forming a base selling volume drying up extreme fear turning to apathy positive divergence in momentum indicators and positive developments in fundamentals
Q What is capitulation and why do analysts mention it
A Capitulation is the final panicdriven selloff where even steadfast investors give up and sell at a