After bouncing back from last week’s lows, XRP has been trading sideways, fluctuating between $1.40 and $1.45 over the past four days. As the price tries to maintain its current range, one market observer suggests the cryptocurrency could be gearing up for a potential recovery—if it holds a key level.
XRP at a Critical Juncture
On Tuesday, crypto analyst ChartNerd reviewed XRP’s performance over the last six months, indicating the altcoin might be “positioned for a major bullish structure shift.” He noted that XRP has seen “six months of downside with virtually no relief,” while showing key signals like the MACD and RSI hitting historically oversold levels.
The analyst also highlighted that the price is simultaneously retesting the 50-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a former eight-year resistance line, and the Fibonacci demand zone.
“This marks the first 50EMA backtest since November 2024, and in doing so, we have a wick marked on the 0.618/0.5 FIB demand zone—a popular reversal pocket,” he said.
In a video analysis, ChartNerd emphasized that XRP is currently at a “critical inflection point,” sitting on its 200-week EMA—a level not tested since 2024 until now.
He explained, “This is one of the most important times for XRP because if it holds above this moving average, it could set the pace for new all-time highs and a continued trend toward higher targets.”
For his bullish case, he pointed to XRP’s behavior in 2023-2024, when it consolidated above this indicator and held it as support for over a year, leading to the breakout in November 2024. The key, according to him, is to “hold the 200W EMA, defend it, and create a higher low base. This is where XRP could push to new all-time highs if it respects this long-term moving average.”
Analyst Warns of a Possible 50% Drop
ChartNerd also shared a bearish scenario, warning that if XRP loses the 200-week EMA on the weekly chart and, more importantly, confirms it as resistance, it could signal a major decline.
According to his analysis, if the altcoin starts closing below the 200-week EMA—around $1.41—it risks falling toward the $0.70 mark. This area represents previous local highs that haven’t been retested since the late 2024 breakout.
He recalled that in 2022, after reaching a local high near $1.97, XRP “came back down to retest its 200-week EMA. It then placed a lower high, lost the 200-week, and corrected further to its bear market lows.”
In past cycles, when XRP failed to hold this critical level, it entered a deep correction, dropping roughly 50% toward the bear market bottom.
“So technically speaking, if XRP lost the 200-week EMA right now and we crashed another roughly 49%, you’d be bringing XRP back down to $0.70—which, again, are those highs I mentioned that we haven’t actually backtested for support since breaking out,” he cautioned.
As of this writing, XRP is trading at $1.39, down 3% on the day.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the topic XRP is poised for a significant structural shift as its price tests a critical level designed to be helpful for both beginners and more advanced users
Beginner Definition Questions
1 What does structural shift mean for XRP
A structural shift refers to a fundamental change in the markets longterm trend or behavior Its not just a shortterm price bump but a potential change in how investors value and trade XRP possibly moving from a long period of consolidation into a new sustained uptrend or downtrend
2 What is a critical level in trading
A critical level is a specific price point that traders and analysts watch closely Its often a level of historical support or resistance If the price breaks through this level it can signal a major change in market sentiment
3 Why is XRPs price at such an important point right now
XRPs price has been trading within a welldefined range for a long time often between 045 and 055 It is now testing the upper boundary of that range A sustained break above could signal that the long period of consolidation is over and buyers are finally taking control
Mechanism Analysis Questions
4 Whats driving this potential shift for XRP
The primary driver is the resolution of Ripples multiyear lawsuit with the US Securities and Exchange Commission The July 2023 court ruling that XRP is not a security in itself removed a massive cloud of uncertainty allowing institutions and exchanges to reengage with it more freely
5 Are there technical indicators pointing to this shift
Yes analysts often look at
Key Resistance Break A clear break and close above the 055060 zone on high volume
Moving Averages The price crossing above longterm moving averages
Chart Patterns The potential completion of large multiyear consolidation patterns
6 Whats the difference between a structural shift and a regular price pump
A regular pump is often driven by shortterm hype or speculation and can