Bitcoin could drop to around $30,000 by the end of the year — at least according to one widely followed chart analyst. This bleak forecast, based on a pattern linked to U.S. midterm election years, adds to growing doubts about whether Bitcoin can reach $250,000 in 2026.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Brewing? Analyst Says All-Time High Possible by Late 2026, but Election-Year Pattern Raises Concerns
Analyst Merlijn The Trader pointed out a recurring trend: Bitcoin tends to sell off sharply in May during midterm election years. In 2014, it dropped 60%. In 2018, it fell 65%. In 2022, the decline was 66%. Each of those drops started around May. If 2026 follows the same pattern, Bitcoin — currently trading near $77,000 — could lose more than 60% of its value, landing around $30,000.
“Three words. Three cycles. Zero exceptions. Sell. In. May. But only in midterm election years. 2014: -61%. 2018: -65%. 2022: -66%. 2026: midterm year. -60.73% points to $30K. May is coming. The chart doesn’t lie. The calendar doesn’t either.” — Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader), April 27, 2026
Capital Group analysts noted that midterm elections often increase market uncertainty, as campaign activity picks up in the spring and investors pull back from riskier assets. Historically, they say, this environment pushes people toward caution. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is already trading about 40% below its record high of roughly $126,000 from October 2025. Despite that drop, high-profile bulls like billionaire Tim Draper and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee haven’t backed away from their $250,000 year-end target — a price that would require the cryptocurrency to more than triple from its current level.
“Bitcoiners: Those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026 need to stop with the mushrooms. This is called a channel. $BTC. While it doesn’t rule out further gains, it is NOT a bullish bottoming pattern. The Factor Report covers classical chart analysis.” — The Factor Report (@PeterLBrandt), April 27, 2026
Peter Brandt Tells Bulls to Put Down the Mushrooms
Veteran futures trader Peter Brandt was more direct. Reacting to the $250,000 predictions, Brandt posted on social media: “Those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026 need to stop with the mushrooms.” He pointed to what he described as a bear flag channel forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart — not a bottoming pattern, he stressed, but a continuation of the current downtrend. Based on this setup, BTC tested resistance near $79,500 before showing signs of pulling back. A move down to the flag’s lower boundary, around $69,000, is possible in May if selling pressure returns. A more severe breakdown below that line, Brandt warned, could push Bitcoin under $50,000.
Halving Cycle Data Suggests the Peak May Already Be In
The halving cycle history makes the bear case harder to ignore. Bitcoin’s price peaks have historically arrived 12 to 18 months after each halving event. After the 2012 halving, the peak came in 12 months. After 2016, it arrived in 17 months. After 2020, it took 18 months.
Related Reading: Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Could Be Near as White House Signals Major Update
The most recent halving happened in April 2024. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025 — right at the 17 to 18-month mark. Now, more than 24 months after that halving, the price sits around $77,000 and is still declining. That timeline, analysts say, closely matches prior cycle peaks, suggesting the top for this cycle may already be behind us.
Not everyone is ready to call it a bear market, though. Analysts at Bernstein have pointed to a potential recovery toward the $100,000 to $150,000 range — a more measured view that neither chases the $250,000 target nor gives in to the most bearish predictions.
Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about the prediction of Bitcoin reaching 250000 by 2026 written in a natural tone
1 I keep hearing about Bitcoin hitting 250000 by 2026 Is that actually possible
Its possible in theory but its an extremely aggressive prediction For Bitcoin to reach that price its market cap would need to exceed 5 trillion That would require massive institutional adoption a global economic shift or a severe devaluation of fiat currencies Most analysts see it as a bestcase scenario not a likely one
2 What does stop with the mushrooms mean Why did the analyst say that
Its a colorful way of saying stop hallucinating The analyst is telling overly optimistic bulls to stop taking psychedelic mushrooms and come back to reality Theyre implying that a 250k price by 2026 is a fantasy based on wishful thinking not on current market trends or realistic growth rates
3 What would have to happen for Bitcoin to actually hit 250k by 2026
Youd need a perfect storm the US and other major countries adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset a massive wave of corporate treasury buying and possibly a global financial crisis where people flee to Bitcoin as a safe haven Even then the timeline is incredibly tight
4 Is there any historical precedent for Bitcoin making that kind of jump in two years
Bitcoin has had massive runs before But from a current price of roughly 60k70k hitting 250k by 2026 would be a 35x to 4x gain Thats a much harder leap from a much larger base The percentage gains shrink as the market cap grows
5 If the analyst is right and its a dream whats a more realistic price target for 2026
Most moderate forecasts put Bitcoin between 100000 and 150000 by late 2026 assuming the current cycle continues Some even see a dip before the next halving 250k is at the very top of the moon shot range