Bitcoin hitting $100,000 again is still a popular prediction for 2026, but one bearish view argues that this goal is becoming less realistic as price action weakens below the $80,000 level. This outlook comes from crypto analyst Alex Mason on social media platform X. He predicts Bitcoin won’t reach $100,000 again this year because its price movement is stuck in a controlled trap within an ascending channel.
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Bitcoin’s Ascending Channel May Have Been A Trap
Bitcoin hasn’t traded above $100,000 in 2026, and with the year nearly half over, the window for a recovery above six figures is closing fast. Over the past two months, price action has been defined by an ascending channel, with Bitcoin forming gradual higher highs and higher lows since its February low just above $60,000. The upper boundary has acted as resistance several times, while the green lower trendline has been the main support keeping the recovery alive.
However, that same channel points to a bearish argument. An ascending channel can look bullish on the surface because prices are moving higher, but it can also become a distribution structure when each upward push loses momentum. According to Mason, Bitcoin’s slow rise within the channel has created fake strength, giving retail traders the impression that a breakout back to $100,000 is still building.
The key moment that revealed this fake strength was the move into the $82,000 CME gap. Bitcoin reached that gap in early May, completed the target, and then faced multiple rejections between May 6 and May 11. This was a textbook trap before the next leg down.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @AlexMasonCrypto On X
Bitcoin’s Odds Of Hitting $100,000 In 2026
As shown in the chart above, Bitcoin is returning to the lower half of the channel, putting the green support line under pressure. If that support breaks, the structure would no longer look like a steady recovery and the start of a push to a new bottom. The first stage of a new bottom is a breakdown from the ascending channel. From there, the next target is around $70,000, followed by a deeper move to new lows at $60,000. The chart even extends the bearish path further, with a dotted projection moving down to as low as $50,000 by early July.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Enter Freefall If This Level Cracks: Analyst
A rally to $100,000 would require confidence, liquidity, and strong follow-through above resistance at $82,000. Bitcoin will also need to reclaim the 200-day moving average around this same level. According to prediction market Kalshi, there’s only a 32% chance that Bitcoin will break above $100,000 again before January 2027.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the statement The Bitcoin price wont reach 100000 again this year
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 Wait did Bitcoin already hit 100000 this year
No it has not Bitcoins alltime high was around 73000 The question is whether it can reach 100000 for the first time before the end of the year
2 Why do people think it wont hit 100000
Mainly because of market resistance regulatory uncertainty and a general cooling of the fear of missing out that drives rapid price spikes
3 Is this just a guess or is there proof it wont happen
Its a strong prediction based on current trends not a proven fact No one can predict the future of crypto with 100 certainty but analysts look at trading volume economic data and past cycles to make educated guesses
4 If it wont hit 100k what is a realistic price target for this year
Many analysts suggest a range between 60000 and 85000 is more realistic depending on global economic conditions and the outcome of the next Bitcoin halving event
Intermediate Advanced Questions
5 What specific resistance levels are preventing Bitcoin from reaching 100k
The main psychological resistance is the previous alltime high of 69000 After that there are heavy sell orders clustered between 75000 and 85000 Breaking through these requires massive new buying pressure which currently isnt present
6 Does the Bitcoin halving guarantee a price jump to 100k
Historically halvings lead to price increases but they happen over 1218 months not immediately The 2024 halving reduced new supply but the effect is being offset by high interest rates and a strong US dollar The halving effect is unlikely to push prices to 100k within the same calendar year
7 How does the current macro environment hurt Bitcoins chances
Bitcoin is a riskon asset When the US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates