A key long-term technical signal remains bullish as Bitcoin nears a significant level on higher timeframe charts. According to CMT-certified analyst Tony Severino, the monthly SuperTrend indicator for BTC has held support and has not yet triggered an active sell signal, despite recent market volatility raising questions about whether the cycle has turned bearish.
Severino pointed to an interesting development on the monthly chart, where the structure has not yet confirmed a sell signal. In a post on X, he highlighted that the monthly SuperTrend has maintained support and its buy signal. The monthly timeframe is especially important as it reduces short-term noise and provides a clearer view of the broader market cycle.
The accompanying chart shows Bitcoin trading around $66,300, with the SuperTrend level just above $66,400. The indicator remains green on the monthly chart, indicating the macro trend is not yet bearish. A confirmed sell signal has historically required a monthly close below the SuperTrend line—something that hasn’t happened. Visually, past bear markets have shown a clear shift from green to red on the SuperTrend, which has not occurred this time. Instead, Bitcoin is consolidating near SuperTrend support.
Severino added an important note: most bear markets initially hold support for one to three months before eventually turning into a sell signal. This means holding support doesn’t completely rule out bearish risks. While he acknowledged that bear markets can linger at support before breaking down, he noted that such behavior often suggests a bottom may be near.
Bitcoin ended February 14.8% below its monthly open but remained above the SuperTrend. A confirmed monthly close below this level would significantly change the outlook. Until then, the indicator suggests Bitcoin is still in a bullish structure.
In a separate analysis using the quarterly Ichimoku indicator, Severino noted that historical data suggests Bitcoin could still fall 38% to 66% from current levels. That would place a potential bear market bottom between $40,000 and $25,000.
In a follow-up post, Severino commented, “Sell, says the SuperTrend.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $66,000, down 1.6% over the past 24 hours. While the monthly structure hasn’t broken, these warnings suggest Bitcoin may not be out of danger yet.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Understanding a CMTCertified Experts Bitcoin Buy Signal
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does a CMTcertified expert mean
A CMT is a professional who has passed rigorous exams to earn a credential focused on analyzing financial markets using technical analysisstudying price charts patterns and trading volumes to forecast future price movements
2 What is a buy signal in simple terms
A buy signal is a specific pattern or indicator on a price chart that suggests based on historical data and analysis that the price of an asset is likely to go up in the near future
3 Does a buy signal from an expert guarantee Bitcoins price will rise
No A buy signal is a probabilitybased forecast not a guarantee Many factors can override a technical signal including major news regulations or broader economic shifts Past performance does not predict future results
4 As a beginner should I invest heavily because of this signal
Absolutely not Never invest a large sum based on a single signal or expert opinion especially if you are new This should be considered one piece of information among many Start by learning and only invest money you can afford to lose
5 What should I do first if Im interested
First educate yourself on Bitcoin and investing basics Then consider starting with a very small regular investment to gain experience without taking on excessive risk
Advanced Practical Questions
6 What specific indicators might have triggered this BTC buy signal
Common technical indicators for buy signals include a bullish moving average crossover a breakout above a key resistance level on high volume or a positive shift in momentum oscillators like the RSI or MACD
7 How does technical analysis for Bitcoin differ from stocks
Bitcoin trades 247 is more volatile and can be influenced by different factors While the charting principles are similar crypto markets are less mature and can be more prone to sharp sentimentdriven moves that defy technical signals
8 What are the biggest risks of acting on this signal
The primary risks are