Bitcoin is currently trading about 50% below its all-time high of $126,000 from last October, leading investors to wonder when the cryptocurrency might finally hit its next market bottom.
Market expert Altcoin Sherpa suggests the current bear phase may not last another full year. He believes Bitcoin could complete its downturn in less than 365 days and potentially resume its broader upward trend before the end of the year.
Has Bitcoin Bottomed?
In a recent analysis, Sherpa clarified that his timeline refers specifically to the period from the peak to the bottom and does not include the subsequent accumulation phase. He describes accumulation as a period of choppy, sideways price movement with low volatility and subdued trading volume, which historically lasts two to four months.
Looking at past cycles, Sherpa notes a consistent pattern: major rallies in 2017 and 2021 were each followed by steep, year-long declines in 2018 and 2022. After these declines came extended accumulation phases, like those seen in 2019 and 2020. He also points out that past bear markets have typically ended with a final capitulation event—a sharp, dramatic sell-off that marks the end of the downtrend.
Sherpa believes a capitulation may have already occurred in 2026, citing Bitcoin’s drop from $100,000 to $60,000 as a potential final flush. If so, the market could already be in the early stages of accumulation.
Accumulation Could Already Be Underway
Sherpa believes the current decline will differ from previous ones because the rallies in 2024 and 2025 were structurally different. While the last two bear markets each lasted about a year with drawdowns of roughly 85% and 75%, he doesn’t expect an exact repeat.
One factor is the growing influence of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Although these products can decline with the market, they have altered capital flow dynamics. He also highlights Bitcoin’s lengthy consolidation between $50,000 and $70,000, which lasted about eight months. Such extended trading ranges often act as strong support zones during pullbacks.
Broader macroeconomic factors—including equities, metals, overall risk appetite, and developments in artificial intelligence—remain critical variables. Still, Sherpa doesn’t believe Bitcoin needs another seven months of steady decline to form a bottom.
If the recent drop from $100,000 to $60,000 was indeed the final capitulation, then accumulation may already be underway. Historically, this phase lasts between two and four months, or roughly 60 to 120 days.
However, Sherpa acknowledges one key risk: the possibility that a final capitulation hasn’t happened yet. If another sell-off occurs—for example, a drop from $75,000 toward $50,000—he would view that as the definitive bottoming event, followed by several months of accumulation.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin Bear Market Ending Within a Year
Beginner Questions
What is a bear market for Bitcoin
A bear market is a period when Bitcoins price is falling or stagnant typically accompanied by negative sentiment and lower trading activity Its the opposite of a bull market where prices rise
Who is the expert making this prediction
The prediction comes from a leading financial or cryptocurrency analyst These experts typically have a track record in market analysis
Why does this expert think the bear market will end so soon
Common reasons experts cite include historical market cycles improving adoption regulatory clarity or macroeconomic factors shifting in favor of risk assets like Bitcoin
Is this prediction a guarantee
No All market predictions even from experts are educated guesses not guarantees Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and influenced by many unpredictable factors
What happens if the bear market ends
If it ends it typically transitions into a period of price stability or growth which could renew investor confidence and increase mainstream interest
Intermediate Strategy Questions
How long do Bitcoin bear markets usually last
Historically major Bitcoin bear markets have lasted between 1 to 15 years though shorter corrections are common The current cycles length is a key part of the experts oneyear forecast
What are the signs that a bear market is actually ending
Potential signs include prices holding a steady higher low a sustained increase in trading volume positive news flow being met with buying instead of selling and declining fear in market sentiment indicators
Should I buy Bitcoin now based on this prediction
This is personal financial advice which we cannot give Never invest based solely on one prediction Always do your own research understand the risks and only invest money you can afford to lose
Whats the difference between a bear market ending and a new bull market starting
A bear market ending means the downtrend has stopped A new bull market is confirmed when prices establish a clear sustained uptrend over a significant period The end of a bear market can be followed by a period of sideways movement
Are other cryptocurrencies expected to follow Bitcoin
Historically yes Bitcoin often leads the broader crypto market If Bitcoin enters a bull market altcoins often follow though with