In May, Binance Pool’s miner reserves dropped slightly from 41,987 to 41,915. While the change is small, it’s a clear sign that selling pressure from miners hasn’t fully stopped. Crypto analysts note that since Binance Pool controls a large share of the global hash rate, its actions often hint at how Bitcoin miners are feeling before the broader market catches on.
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The Miner Position Index remains below levels seen during past panic selling, and the Puell Multiple—which measures miner revenue compared to long-term averages—is still under one. Analysts describe current miner behavior as a “wait phase,” a pattern that has appeared near cycle bottoms before.
Long-Term Holders Take Over The Supply Side
More than 70% of all circulating Bitcoin is now held by investors who have owned it for at least a year. According to data from CryptoQuant, this figure has crossed back above 15 million BTC for the first time since October 2025.
🚨 $BTC Long Term Holders Just Flashed The Signal That Preceded Every Major Expansion Phase Since 2012.
#Bitcoin The 1Y+ Long Term Holder metric has now dropped back into the historical “oversold” accumulation zone, a region that previously appeared before explosive upside… pic.twitter.com/9ZHwKFJRm9 — CryptoZeno (@CrypZeno) May 20, 2026
Analyst CryptoZeno said the one-year-plus holder metric has returned to a zone that, in past cycles, came just before major price increases. Based on reports citing CryptoZeno’s analysis, similar readings appeared ahead of upward moves in 2013, 2016, 2019, and late 2022. When these holders are buying instead of selling, the available supply tightens—and historically, that hasn’t been a good time to bet on lower prices.
A Key Technical Signal Flips Bullish
This week, Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) retested the 50 level, triggering a bullish signal from crypto analyst Sykodelic. This retest happened 105 days after Bitcoin’s weekly RSI entered oversold territory—only the fourth time this has ever occurred. Sykodelic noted that three of those four instances led to long-term price growth. The exception was 2022, when the FTX collapse pushed the market to new lows after an initial recovery attempt, and the RSI never managed to reclaim the 50 level during that move. This time, it did.
The chance of new lows has become extremely slim. It has now been 105 days since the cycle low, in which the 1W RSI entered oversold… Only for the 4th time ever. The only time Bitcoin made new lows after 105 days after the bottom was in the last cycle. However, the RSI had… pic.twitter.com/ej7vReV8H6 — Sykodelic 🔪 (@Sykodelic_) May 20, 2026
Odds Of A Drop Below $60,000 Called ‘Extremely Slim’
Taken together, analysts say the data points away from a fresh breakdown. With long-term holders accumulating near historical lows, a technical indicator turning positive for the first time since February, and miner behavior matching past bottoms, analysts are largely in agreement.
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The odds of Bitcoin falling below $60,000 again, Sykodelic said, have become extremely slim. Whether that confidence holds will depend on whether the market can avoid the kind of external shock—like a major exchange failure—that broke the pattern in 2022.
Featured image from Yellow, chart from TradingView
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the statement Analysts say the chances of Bitcoin hitting new lows are extremely slim
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does new lows mean for Bitcoin
It means Bitcoins price dropping below its lowest recent price For example if Bitcoin hit 15000 last year and is now at 60000 a new low would mean falling below 15000
2 Why are analysts saying new lows are extremely slim
Because Bitcoin has strong support from big investors the market is more stable than in past crashes and the overall trend is still upward They think the worst of the recent price drop is over
3 Does this mean Bitcoin will definitely go up now
No Extremely slim means very unlikely but not impossible Its a prediction not a guarantee Prices can still go down just probably not to recordbreaking lows
4 Should I buy Bitcoin now because of this news
Not necessarily This is just one opinion Always do your own research and never invest money you cant afford to lose A single analyst prediction shouldnt be your only reason to buy
5 What is the bottom for Bitcoin
The bottom is the lowest price Bitcoin reaches during a downturn Analysts are saying we are likely already near or past the bottom meaning the price wont fall much further
IntermediateLevel Questions
6 What specific data are analysts looking at to say this
They look at onchain data derivatives markets and institutional inflows For example low selling from longterm holders and high buying from ETFs suggest the price floor is strong
7 How does institutional adoption affect the chances of new lows
Big companies and funds buy Bitcoin in large amounts and tend to hold for years This creates a price floor because they dont panicsell during small dips making a massive crash less likely
8 What happened in previous Bitcoin cycles that makes analysts confident
In past cycles Bitcoin fell 8090 from its peak This cycle the drop has been