A crypto market analyst has shared a new technical analysis explaining why Bitcoin’s price has not yet hit a cycle bottom. Using a charting method called the Bear Bands alongside the Halving Cycles Theory, the analyst suggests that while a short-term bounce is underway, the broader bear market still has a long way to go, with more downside expected before a final floor is reached.
According to market expert Crypto Con on X, Bitcoin’s recent surge above $71,000—after hitting a first major low below $64,000—is a typical reaction and does not signal the end of the bear market. The analyst notes that price action is unfolding exactly as predicted by the Halving Cycles Theory, both in timing and price levels. He adds that Bitcoin’s position at the first low of the Bear Bands indicator actually supports his bearish outlook.
Sharing a detailed chart of Bitcoin’s price history since 2011, Crypto Con points to a recurring three-stage pattern in past bear markets: a first low, a second low, and a final cycle bottom before any sustained recovery. Based on this pattern, he argues that Bitcoin has not yet bottomed but may be approaching that phase.
According to the Bear Bands framework, Bitcoin’s first low occurred around $64,000, which it reached in February. The second low for the current cycle is projected near $44,500, suggesting significant downside remains before that support level is tested. Below that, Crypto Con identifies a potential cycle bottom around $28,500—the deepest expected level before a true reversal could begin. With Bitcoin currently above $72,000, a drop to $28,500 would mean a decline of over 60%, underscoring the analyst’s view that the bear market is not over.
Beyond price targets, Crypto Con’s timeline offers a sobering outlook. He projects that the second low near $44,500 is at least five months away from his post, pointing to a window between August and October 2026 for the next major downturn. This would delay any final bottom until well after mid-2026.
If the $28,500 cycle bottom plays out, Crypto Con expects it no sooner than three months after the second low, suggesting a timeframe between November 2026 and January 2027 for Bitcoin to potentially find its true price floor before a recovery can begin.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Analyst Claims Bitcoin Has Yet to Hit Bottom Predicts Rebound
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does it mean when an analyst says Bitcoin hasnt hit bottom
It means the analyst believes the price of Bitcoin could still fall further before it stops declining and stabilizes The bottom is the lowest point in a market downturn
2 Why do analysts think Bitcoin could drop more
Common reasons include ongoing high inflation rising interest rates fear in the broader crypto market or large investors selling their holdings
3 What is a rebound or recovery in this context
A rebound is when the price stops falling and starts rising again consistently Its the transition from a downtrend to a new uptrend
4 Should I sell my Bitcoin if the bottom isnt in yet
This is a personal financial decision Some investors choose to hold through volatility while others may sell to avoid further losses Never invest money you cant afford to lose and consider your own risk tolerance and longterm strategy
5 How do analysts predict when a rebound might happen
They look at historical price patterns technical indicators on charts broader economic data and market sentiment These are educated guesses not guarantees
Advanced Practical Questions
6 What specific indicators are analysts likely watching to call a bottom
Key indicators include
OnChain Data Metrics like realized price MVRV ratio or exchange outflows showing accumulation
Technical Analysis Support levels moving averages and momentum oscillators like the RSI showing oversold conditions
Macro Factors Shifts in Federal Reserve policy or a peak in inflation data
7 Whats the difference between a bear market rally and a true bottomrecovery
A bear market rally is a shortterm price increase during a longerterm downtrend A true bottom involves a longer period of consolidation and a fundamental shift in market structure leading to sustained buying
8 Could external events trigger a rebound sooner than chart patterns suggest
Absolutely Unexpected positive news like a major country adopting favorable crypto regulation a large institution announcing major investment or a sudden shift in global monetary policy could accelerate a rebound