Despite Bitcoin’s sharp decline since last October, analysts at Bernstein argue the current downturn does not resemble a typical crypto bear market. In a note to clients, the firm described the pullback as “the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,” even though the price has fallen roughly 44% from its all-time highs.
Bernstein Defends Bitcoin’s Fundamentals
Led by Gautam Chhugani, the analysis suggests the recent sell-off stems from a loss of confidence rather than deep structural issues. The analysts emphasized that Bitcoin’s core fundamentals remain strong and that this decline should not be seen as a systemic failure. Bernstein reaffirmed its long-term outlook, maintaining a $150,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2026.
Bernstein noted that many of the classic “red flags” preceding major Bitcoin crashes are absent this time. There have been no large institutional collapses, no exposure of hidden leverage, and no widespread failures across the crypto ecosystem. Instead, the firm sees a market burdened by negative sentiment, even as broader conditions appear unusually favorable.
The analysts pointed to strong institutional support, including a pro-Bitcoin U.S. president, the continued growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increasing adoption by corporate treasuries, and sustained interest from major asset managers. In Bernstein’s view, these factors clearly set the current cycle apart from past downturns driven by excessive risk and fragile structures.
Holders and Miners Can Weather a Long Downturn
The firm also addressed shifting narratives around technology trends. While some investors argue Bitcoin has become irrelevant as attention turns to artificial intelligence (AI), Bernstein dismissed this view, saying it reflects changing investor focus rather than a genuine threat to Bitcoin’s role. They added that fears around quantum computing are similarly overstated, noting such risks would affect all critical digital systems, not just Bitcoin.
Bernstein further downplayed fears of forced selling by corporate treasuries or miner capitulation. The firm stated that major companies holding Bitcoin have structured their balance sheets to endure prolonged downturns. Referencing comments from MicroStrategy’s recent earnings call, the analysts noted that only an extreme scenario—Bitcoin falling to $8,000 and staying there for five years—would trigger a need for restructuring.
Miners, they added, are also better positioned than in past cycles. Many have diversified their revenue by shifting power resources toward AI data center demand, reducing their reliance on Bitcoin mining alone and easing pressure from production costs.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,627, having recorded losses of 20% and 22% over the past fourteen and thirty days, respectively.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs based on the Bernstein research note about Bitcoins price drop and their 150000 target
Understanding the Bernstein Report
Q1 What did Bernstein actually say about Bitcoin recently
A Bernstein a major investment firm stated that the recent sharp drop in Bitcoins price is primarily due to a crisis of confidence among investors likely triggered by market overleverage and panic selling Despite this they maintain a longterm bullish outlook reiterating their price target of 150000 for Bitcoin
Q2 What does a crisis of confidence mean in this context
A It means that investors temporarily lost faith in Bitcoins immediate upward momentum This can be caused by fear negative news or large selloffs leading people to sell their holdings quickly which drives the price down further in a short period
Q3 If theyre so confident why did the price crash
A Bernstein is distinguishing between shortterm sentiment and longterm fundamentals They believe the crash was a temporary emotional reaction not a change in the core value drivers they see for Bitcoin like institutional adoption through ETFs and its fixed supply
About the 150000 Price Target
Q4 Why is Bernstein setting a 150000 price target for Bitcoin
A Their target is based on a combination of factors including the massive inflows into new Spot Bitcoin ETFs Bitcoins historically fixed supply and its growing adoption as a legitimate digital asset class by institutions and corporations
Q5 By when do they expect Bitcoin to reach 150000
A While the exact timeline can vary in different reports Bernstein has previously indicated this target for mid2025 Its a projection not a guarantee
Q6 Is a 150000 price realistic
A Its a bullish forecast For it to happen the current trends Bernstein is betting onlike sustained ETF inflows and continued institutional adoptionwould need to accelerate Its important to remember that all price predictions in crypto are highly speculative
For Beginners Basics and Implications
Q7 Im new to this Should I buy Bitcoin because of this report