According to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, Bitcoin’s long-term rise in value relative to gold has come to a halt. He highlights a break in a trend that lasted over a decade.
He suggests the timing aligns with when quantum computing became a focus for Bitcoin developers and when the Quantum Bitcoin Summit occurred. Woo believes this shift has changed how the market views Bitcoin’s future.
Quantum Concerns and Lost Bitcoin
Reports indicate that roughly 4 million BTC are effectively out of circulation due to lost private keys. This is significant, as corporate buyers and spot ETFs have removed nearly 3 million BTC from the market since 2020. If powerful quantum computers could someday recover some of those lost coins, the resulting increase in supply would significantly impact the market.
Woo estimates a 25% chance of a network hard fork that would freeze any recovered coins. He also suggests that “Q-Day”—when quantum machines could break current cryptography—is roughly 5 to 15 years away. However, markets often price in potential risks long before they materialize.
Macroeconomic Flows Favor Gold
Broader financial cycles are currently directing large pools of capital toward traditional hard assets. Following long-term debt cycles, money often moves into perceived safe havens. Sovereign wealth funds and major investors have been buying gold while Bitcoin’s price has stalled. This has led to a gold rally and Bitcoin lagging behind—a gap analysts like Woo are examining.
Skepticism Over Quantum Panic
Not everyone shares these quantum concerns. Blockstream CEO Adam Back has called the threat distant and exaggerated, arguing that Bitcoin could upgrade its cryptography through network consensus if needed. Prominent Bitcoin educator Andreas Antonopoulos has also noted that quantum computing would challenge the entire internet and global security infrastructure, not just Bitcoin, and that defenses would likely be strengthened well in advance.
Yet Woo points to unusual market activity, including movements from early-era Bitcoin wallets. Reports of transfers from Satoshi-era wallets over the past year can quickly shift market sentiment, as even a few large transactions can influence prices for weeks.
Current Market Snapshot
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $68,700, experiencing volatility after failing to sustain last year’s peak near $126,000. Gold is trading around $4,950 per ounce, bolstered by its safe-haven status amid market uncertainty.
Analysts note that Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, while gold is a traditional store of value. The correlation between the two is very weak, indicating they largely move independently of each other.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin Quantum Computing and Market Concerns
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 Whats the main connection between Bitcoin and quantum computing
Bitcoins security relies heavily on complex cryptography to prove ownership and authorize transactions Quantum computers a new type of superpowerful computer could theoretically break this cryptography potentially allowing someone to steal coins or disrupt the network
2 Is quantum computing a real threat to Bitcoin right now
No not immediately The most powerful quantum computers today are not yet advanced enough to break Bitcoins encryption Experts estimate this quantum threat is still years possibly a decade or more away The current concern is more about future risk affecting investor confidence today
3 Why would this future threat affect Bitcoins price now
Markets often price in future risks If large investors believe a fundamental technology like Bitcoins security could be compromised in the long term they may be hesitant to invest heavily now This uncertainty can create a headwind that holds the price back even if current conditions seem positive
4 What does Bitcoin should be soaring refer to
The analyst is likely pointing to positive market fundamentals that often drive prices up such as increased adoption institutional investment or favorable macroeconomic conditions Theyre arguing that despite these positives the overhang of the quantum computing narrative is suppressing the price
5 Cant Bitcoin just upgrade to be quantumresistant
Yes absolutely Developers and cryptographers are already working on and testing postquantum cryptography new encryption methods that even quantum computers couldnt easily break The Bitcoin community could adopt these through a network upgrade when necessary The challenge is ensuring a smooth coordinated transition
AdvancedLevel Questions
6 What specific part of Bitcoins protocol is most vulnerable to quantum attack
The primary vulnerability is the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm used to create publicprivate key pairs A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could use Shors algorithm to derive the private key from a public key allowing it to forge signatures and spend from that address
7 Are all Bitcoin addresses equally vulnerable
No Addresses that have