Bitcoin’s current price movement toward a potential bear market is a major focus in the crypto industry. Currently trading between $87,700 and $88,000, Bitcoin has fallen 30% from its all-time high in October 2025. While price action can be ambiguous, on-chain data is providing clearer signals.
Analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin’s internal market structure is shifting toward early-stage bear market conditions. A key signal comes from the Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI), which blends price action with on-chain momentum. According to CryptoQuant analyst Woo Minkyu, Bitcoin’s BCMI returned to the 0.5 level in October, initially seen as a cooling period rather than a definitive cycle top. At the time, this suggested Bitcoin was consolidating after a long rally.
However, this view has weakened as market conditions have deteriorated. Bitcoin’s price has declined significantly since late October, and the BCMI has fallen alongside it. This joint decline indicates a market reset not just in time, but also in valuation and participation.
As the chart below shows, the BCMI has now dropped below its equilibrium zone—a development that historically coincides with transitions into bearish phases, where rallies are limited and downside risks grow.
Looking at previous cycles adds context. In both 2019 and 2023, meaningful cycle bottoms formed only after the BCMI compressed into the 0.25 to 0.35 range. Those levels reflected deeply compressed sentiment, washed-out positioning, and a structural market reset. Currently, Bitcoin’s BCMI is below 0.4. While this is below equilibrium, it remains well above the bottom zone, suggesting the market may be entering a bear phase rather than just a pullback. The analyst notes that a more durable bottom may only form if history repeats and the BCMI revisits the 2019-2023 lows.
Weak market sentiment further supports the bearish case. Optimism has been scarce in recent weeks, with traders showing little confidence that a price floor has been established. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently reads 28, firmly in the “Fear” zone.
This poor sentiment is echoed in industry commentary. For example, Changpeng Zhao recently observed that many investors only wish they had bought Bitcoin early when prices were already at all-time highs. In reality, those early accumulations typically happened during periods like the present, dominated by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoin Entering a Bear Market
Beginner Questions
Q What does it mean when people say Bitcoin is in a bear market
A It means the price of Bitcoin has been falling significantly for a sustained period typically 20 or more from recent highs and the overall market sentiment is pessimistic
Q How do we know the data confirms a bear market
A Analysts look at key metrics like a prolonged downward price trend lower trading volumes negative market sentiment indicators and Bitcoin trading below important longterm moving averages
Q Should I panic and sell all my Bitcoin if were in a bear market
A Panic selling is rarely a good strategy Bear markets are a normal though difficult part of market cycles Many longterm investors use this time to learn reassess their strategy or cautiously accumulate assets at lower prices
Q How long do Bitcoin bear markets usually last
A Historically they have lasted anywhere from several months to over a year Theres no set timeline as each cycle is different based on broader economic conditions and cryptospecific events
Q What causes a Bitcoin bear market
A A combination of factors including profittaking after big rallies negative regulatory news broader economic downturns loss of investor confidence or largescale selloffs by major holders
Intermediate Strategy Questions
Q Is a bear market a bad time to start investing in Bitcoin
A It can be an opportunity for new investors to buy at lower prices but it requires a strong stomach for volatility and a longterm perspective The key is to only invest money you can afford to lose and to invest gradually
Q Whats the difference between a bear market and a normal price correction
A A correction is a shorter sharper price drop within a longerterm uptrend A bear market is a more fundamental and sustained shift from optimism to pessimism with deeper losses and a longer duration
Q What are some signs that a bear market might be ending
A While hard to pinpoint potential signs include prices stabilizing and forming a bottom positive news starting to outweigh negative news