As 2025 drew to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) finished on a downward trend, trading more than 30% below its record highs and contending with the formation of a “death cross”—a technical signal often seen before major price declines. Currently trading just above $89,200, Bitcoin recently saw its 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs) cross on December 8, a point highlighted by market analyst Ali Martinez on X (formerly Twitter).
Martinez stressed the importance of monitoring these moving averages on the weekly chart. Historically, whenever Bitcoin has experienced a death cross between the 10-week and 50-week SMAs, it has been followed by significant corrections.
Looking at past instances on the weekly chart, similar crossovers led to price drops of 67% in September 2014, 54% in June 2018, 53% in March 2020, and 64% in January 2022. Given the recent death cross, Martinez suggests that if past patterns hold, Bitcoin could see a correction of 50% to 60%, potentially pushing its price down to between $50,000 and $38,000.
Adding to the analysis, market expert Mags has outlined two possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s near future.
Following Bitcoin’s decline from its October highs above $126,000, it has been trading around $85,000 for several weeks. At the same time, Tether’s USDT dominance has broken out of its previous range and is holding above that breakout level. Since Bitcoin and USDT dominance typically move in opposite directions, Mags sees two main paths ahead.
The first is a bullish scenario. If USDT dominance starts to fall, the current breakout could prove to be a false signal. Mags believes this could trigger another surge in Bitcoin’s price, potentially even leading to a new all-time high before any major sell-off occurs.
Conversely, Mags described a second, bearish scenario. If the overall market weakens, Bitcoin might see a temporary bounce while USDT dominance forms a higher low near the middle of its range before rising again. In this case, BTC would likely enter a slow distribution phase—not a crash or sharp drop, but a gradual, choppy decline typical of early bearish markets.
The next move in USDT dominance will be key in determining whether the current market is just a pause before further gains or the beginning of an extended distribution phase ahead of a new all-time high.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoins Key Moving Averages the 38000 Prediction
Beginner Questions
1 What are moving averages in the context of Bitcoin
Moving averages are technical indicators that smooth out Bitcoins price data over a specific period to show the average price trend helping to identify potential support resistance and momentum
2 Why are people saying Bitcoin could fall to 38000
Some analysts are observing that Bitcoins price is approaching or crossing below key moving average levels Historically such breaks can signal a shift in momentum and lead to further declines with 38000 being identified as a potential next major support level
3 What is a key moving average
A key moving average is a specific widely watched averagelike the 50day or 200daythat many traders use to gauge the overall health and direction of the market A break below these levels is considered a significant bearish signal
4 Is a drop to 38000 guaranteed
No it is not guaranteed Technical analysis like this provides probabilities based on past patterns but it is not a prediction of the future Market sentiment news and macroeconomic factors can always override these signals
5 Should I sell my Bitcoin if I hear this
Not necessarily based on this signal alone This is one piece of analysis Your decision should align with your investment strategy risk tolerance and time horizon Its often wise to avoid making panicdriven decisions
Intermediate Advanced Questions
6 Which specific moving averages are suggesting this potential drop
Typically analysts focus on the relationship between the 50day Simple Moving Average and the 200day SMA A scenario where the price breaks decisively below the 50day SMA and the 50day SMA itself threatens to cross below the 200day SMA is a classic bearish setup that could target lower support levels like 38000
7 What is the difference between a support level and a moving average
A support level is a specific price zone where buying interest has historically been strong enough to prevent the price from falling further A moving average is a dynamic line that can